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The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads

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  • Jun Liu
  • Francis A. Longstaff
  • Ravit E. Mandell

Abstract

This paper studies the market price of credit risk incorporated into one of the most important credit spreads in the financial markets: interest rate swap spreads. Our approach consists of jointly modeling the swap and Treasury term structures using a general five-factor affine credit framework and estimating the parameters by maximum likelihood. We solve for the implied special financing rate for Treasury bonds and find that the liquidity component of on-the-run bond prices can be significant. We also find that credit premia in swap spreads are positive on average. These premia, however, vary significantly over time and were actually negative for much of the 1990s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8990.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Publication status: published as Liu, Jun, Francis A. Longstaff, and Ravit Mandell. "The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks." The Journal of Business 79, 5 (September 2006): 2337-2360.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8990

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  1. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  3. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
  4. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September.
  5. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Term premiums in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 529-546, December.
  6. Boudoukh, Jacob & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1993. "Liquidity as a Choice Variable: A Lesson from the Japanese Government Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 265-92.
  7. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  8. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Anurag Gupta, 1998. "An Empirical Examination of the Convexity Bias in the Pricing of Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-068, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  9. Darrell Duffie & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2003. "Modeling Sovereign Yield Spreads: A Case Study of Russian Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-159, 02.
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  15. Bicksler, James & Chen, Andrew H, 1986. " An Economic Analysis of Interest Rate Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 645-55, July.
  16. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
  17. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
  18. Litzenberger, Robert H, 1992. " Swaps: Plain and Fanciful," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 831-50, July.
  19. Hua He, 2000. "Modeling Term Structures of Swap Spreads," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm150, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
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  21. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. " Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-49, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Oleksandr Talavera & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 73, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Rohan Churm & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2005. "Decomposing credit spreads," Bank of England working papers 253, Bank of England.
  3. Marta Gómez-Puig, 2005. "The Impact Of Monetary Union On Eu-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads," Working Papers 05-11, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  4. Marta Gomez Puig, 2005. "Monetary Integration and the Cost of Borrowing," Working Papers in Economics 134, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
  5. John Kambhu, 2006. "Trading risk, market liquidity, and convergence trading in the interest rate swap spread," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-13.
  6. Longstaff, Francis A. & Mithal, Sanjay & Neis, Eric, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market, previously titled: "The Credit-Default Swap Market: Is Credit Protection Priced Correctly?&qu," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8gn7h03k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  7. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2003. "Counterparty credit risk in interest rate swaps during times of market stress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Joseph Byrne & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2007. "Unit Roots in Inflation and Aggregation Bias," Working Papers 2007_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  9. Felipe Alarcon & Nicolas Malandre, 2010. "Onshore spread and swap spread: Chilean money market liquidity indicators," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 391-399 Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
  11. Somnath Chatterjee, 2005. "An Investigation Into The Linkages Between Euro And Sterling Swap Spreads," Working Papers 2005_1, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  12. Matías Bernier B & Felipe Alarcón G. ., 2009. "Diferencias en Medidas de Compensación Inflacionaria y Swap Spread," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(1), pages 105-116, April.
  13. John Kambhu, 2004. "Trading risk and volatility in interest rate swap spreads," Staff Reports 178, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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