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The Market Price Of Risk In Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles Of Default And Liquidity Risks

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  • Liu, Jun
  • Longstaff, Francis A.
  • Mandell, Ravit E.
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    Abstract

    We study how the market prices the default and liquidity risks incorporated into one of the most important credit spreads in the financial markets–interest rate swap spreads. Our approach consists of jointly modeling the Treasury, repo, and swap term structures using a general five-factor affine credit framework and estimating the parameters by maximum likelihood. We find that the credit spread is driven by changes in a persistent liquidity process and a rapidly mean-reverting default intensity process. Although both processes have similar volatilities, we find that the credit premium priced into swap rates is primarily compensation for liquidity risk. The term structure of liquidity premia increases steeply with maturity. In contrast, the term structure of default premia is almost flat. However, both liquidity and default premia vary significantly over time.

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    Paper provided by Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA in its series University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management with number qt5z42g22g.

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    Date of creation: 01 May 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt5z42g22g

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    2. David A. Chapman & John B. Long Jr. & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When are Three Months Like an Instant?," Finance 9808004, EconWPA, revised 07 Oct 1998.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
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    5. Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August.
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    8. Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December.
    9. Anurag Gupta & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of the Convexity Bias in the Pricing of Interest Rate Swaps," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-001, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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    1. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Huang, Ying & Chen, Carl R., 2007. "The effect of Fed monetary policy regimes on the US interest rate swap spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 375-399.
    3. Sun, David & Lin, William & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2007. "Long run credit risk diversification: empirical decomposition of corporate bond spreads," MPRA Paper 37283, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2008.
    4. Huang, Ying & Neftci, Salih N. & Guo, Feng, 2008. "Swap curve dynamics across markets: Case of US dollar versus HK dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 79-93, February.
    5. Blaskowitz, Oliver J. & Herwartz, Helmut & de Cadenas Santiago, Gonzalo, 2005. "Modeling the FIBOR/EURIBOR Swap Term Structure : An Empirical Approach," Economics Working Papers 2005,04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    6. Duarte, Jefferson & Longstaff, Francis A. & Yu, Fan, 2005. "Risk and Return in Fixed Income Arbitage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6zx6m7fp, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.

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