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Unit Roots in Inflation and Aggregation Bias

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Author Info
Joseph Byrne
Alexandros Kontonikas
Alberto Montagnoli

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether UK inflation is characterized by aggregation bias using three sets of increasingly disaggregated inflation data and a battery of univariate and panel unit root tests. Our results support the existence of aggregation bias since while the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected for aggregate inflation, it can be rejected for some of its sectoral components, with the rejection frequencies increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Results from structural break analysis indicate that monetary policy shifts are the main factor behind breaks in UK inflation. The panel results typically indicate that when sectoral inflation rates are pooled the unit root hypothesis can be rejected. Our results have important implications for applied econometric analysis, macroeconomic theory and for the conduct of monetary policy.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2007_07.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2007_07

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation; Unit Root; Disaggregation; Structural Breaks; Panel Data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tse, Yiuman & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "Common volatility and volatility spillovers between U.S. and Eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 299-312, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2002. "The Market Price of Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Interest Rate Swap Spreads," NBER Working Papers 8990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Franklin R. Edward, 1999. "Hedge Funds and the Collapse of Long-Term Capital Management," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 189-210, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sun, Tong-sheng & Sundaresan, Suresh & Wang, Ching, 1993. "Interest rate swaps: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 77-99, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mark Grinblatt, 1995. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1144, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
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