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Stochastic Discount Factor Bounds with Conditioning Information

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Andrew Siegel

Abstract

Hansen and Jagannathan (HJ, 1991) describe restrictions on the volatility of stochastic discount factors (SDFs) that price a given set of asset returns. This paper compares the sampling properties of different versions of HJ bounds that use conditioning information in the form of a given set of lagged instruments. HJ describe one way to use conditioning information. Their approach is to multiply the original returns by the lagged variables, and much of the asset pricing literature to date has followed this ihmultiplicativel. approach. We also study two versions of optimized HJ bounds with conditioning information. One is from Gallant, Hansen and Tauchen (1990) and the second is based on the unconditionally-efficient portfolios derived in Ferson and Siegel (2000). We document finite-sample biases in the HJ bounds, where the biased bounds reject asset-pricing models too often. We provide useful correction factors for the bias. We also evaluate the asymptotic standard errors for the HJ bounds, from Hansen, Heaton and Luttmer (1995).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8789.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Publication status: published as Ferson, Wayne E. and Andrew F. Siegel. "Stochastic Discount Factor Bounds With Conditioning Information," Review of Financial Studies, 2003, v16(2,Summer), 567-595.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8789

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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-74.
  2. G. William Schwert & Paul J. Seguin, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 2956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
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  9. John H. Cochrane & Lars Peter Hansen, 1992. "Asset Pricing Explorations for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 115-182 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. Green, Richard C & Hollifield, Burton, 1992. " When Will Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1785-809, December.
  14. John H. Cochrane, 1992. "A Cross-Sectional Test of a Production-Based Asset Pricing Model," NBER Working Papers 4025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hansen, Lars Peter & Tauchen, George, 1990. "Using conditional moments of asset payoffs to infer the volatility of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 141-179.
  17. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1992. " Seasonality and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 511-52, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2005. "Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 201-232, May.
  2. Galvani, Valentina & Gubellini, Stefano, 2013. "Mean–variance dominant trading strategies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 142-150.
  3. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel & Pisun (Tracy) Xu, 2005. "Mimicking Portfolios with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 11020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Enrique Sentana & Francisco Peñaranda, 2007. "Duality In Mean-Variance Frontiers With Conditioning Information," Working Papers wp2007_0715, CEMFI.
  5. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2008. "The exact distribution of the Hansen-Jagannathan bound," Working Paper 2008-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Liu, Ludan, 2008. "It takes a model to beat a model: Volatility bounds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-110, January.
  8. Devraj Basu & Alexander Stremme, 2006. "Asset Pricing Anomalies and Time-varying Betas: A New Specification Test for Conditional Factor Models," Working Papers wpn06-15, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  9. Wayne E. Ferson & Jerchern Lin, 2013. "Alpha and Performance Measurement: The Effects of Investor Disagreement and Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 19349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fletcher, Jonathan & Kihanda, Joseph, 2005. "An examination of alternative CAPM-based models in UK stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2995-3014, December.
  11. Abhyankar, Abhay & Basu, Devraj & Stremme, Alexander, 2007. "Portfolio efficiency and discount factor bounds with conditioning information: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 419-437, February.
  12. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
  13. Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2014. "Investor Heterogeneity and the Cross-section of U.K. Investment Trust Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 67-89, February.

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