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When Unions "Mattered": Assessing the Impact of Strikes on Financial Markets: 1925-1937

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Author Info
John DiNardo
Kevin F. Hallock

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Abstract

Combining information from labor historians and using techniques from finance we analyze the strikes that labor historians have agreed are pivotal in American history' during the period 1925-1937. Using information we collected on strike dates and historical financial market stock price data we assess the financial market's view of these conflicts. We study the effects of major strikes between the world wars on detailed industry stock prices. We find that strikes have large, negative effects on industry stock value. We also find that longer strikes, violent strikes, strikes where unions win,' industry-wide strikes, strikes that lead to union recognition, and strikes that lead to large wage increases lead to larger negative share price reactions than other strikes. Also, our analysis shows that most of the news' in a strike seems to be incorporated very early on in the strike. Our analysis strongly suggests that although the financial markets generally expected unions to lose,' they viewed union victories as quite important determinants of the share of firm profits going to stockholders.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7794.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7794

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J5 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining
G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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  1. Obeua S. Persons, 1995. "The effects of automobile strikes on the stock value of steel suppliers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 49(1), pages 78-87, October.
  2. David Neumark & Michael L. Wachter, 1992. "Union Threat Effects and Nonunion Industry Wage Differentials," NBER Working Papers 4046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lazear, Edward P, 1983. "A Competitive Theory of Monopoly Unionism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 631-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Nelson, Morton & Amoako-Adu, Ben & Smith, Brian, 1994. "Impact of labor strikes on equity values: Canadian evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 153-165, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ruback, Richard S & Zimmerman, Martin B, 1984. "Unionization and Profitability: Evidence from the Capital Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1134-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jonathan K. Kramer & Geraldo M. Vasconcellos, 1996. "The economic effect of strikes on the shareholders of nonstruck competitors," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 49(2), pages 213-222, January.
  8. Freeman, Richard B & Medoff, James L, 1981. "The Impact of the Percentage Organized on Union and Nonunion Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 561-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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