Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Phillip B. Levine
  • Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract

This paper examines the likely effects of the aging of the baby boom on labor force attachment, unemployment, and wages. Labor market trends between now and 2020 are the focus of analysis, when the majority of the baby boom generation will confront its retirement decision. We begin by reviewing past labor force trends and discussing important limitations of existing projection methods. Key elements needed to project the consequences of the demographic shock facing the labor market are identified. The task of developing a fully specified economic model to examine the effect of the aging of the baby boom on the labor market is as yet incomplete. On the basis of the best available evidence, we suggest the following conclusions can be drawn: The trend towards earlier retirement will slow and perhaps reverse in the next few decades. Unemployment should fall among older workers and the aggregate full-employment unemployment rate should also decline as the baby boom ages. The aging of the baby boom will not depress wages substantially, either for older workers or for other demographic groups.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w3743.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3743.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 1991
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Levine, Philip B. and Olivia S. Mitchell. "Expected Changes in the Work- Force and Implications for Labor Markets." Demography and Retirement: The 21st Century. Edited by A. Rappaport and R. Scheiber. Pension Research Concil, Praeger, 1993, P. 73-96.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3743

Note: LS
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hutchens, Robert, 1986. "Delayed Payment Contracts and a Firm's Propensity to Hire Older Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-57, October.
  2. Robert Hutchens, 1988. "Do job opportunities decline with age?," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 89-99, October.
  3. Marie Howland & George E. Peterson, 1988. "Labor market conditions and the reemployment of displaced workers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 109-122, October.
  4. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1991. "Changing the Social Security rules for work after age 65," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 44(4), pages 733-745, July.
  5. repec:fth:stanho:e-88-34 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Stock, James H. & Wise, David A., 1990. "Efficient windows and labor force reduction," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 131-159, November.
  7. Levine, Phillip B & Mitchell, Olivia S, 1988. "The Baby Boom's Legacy: Relative Wages in the Twenty-First Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 66-69, May.
  8. Michael Podgursky & Paul Swaim, 1987. "Job displacement and earnings loss: Evidence from the Displaced Worker Survey," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 41(1), pages 17-29, October.
  9. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1981. "Partial Retirement and the Analysis of Retirement Behavior," NBER Working Papers 0763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Edward P. Lazear, 1988. "Adjusting to an Aging Labor Force," NBER Working Papers 2802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Joseph F. Quinn & Richard V. Burkhauser & Daniel A. Myers, 1990. "Passing the Torch: The Influence of Economic Incentives on Work and Retirement," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number pt, December.
  12. Richard V. Burkhauser & Joseph F. Quinn, 1983. "Is Mandatory Retirement Overrated? Evidence from the 1970s," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 337-358.
  13. Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
  14. Olivia S. Mitchell & Rebecca A. Luzadis, 1988. "Changes in pension incentives through time," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 100-108, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.