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Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

Author

Listed:
  • Arpit Gupta
  • Vrinda Mittal
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We study the impact of remote work on the commercial office sector. We document large shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents as firms shifted to remote work in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the pandemic has had large effects on both current and expected future cash flows for office buildings. Remote work also changes the risk premium on office real estate. We revalue the stock of New York City commercial office buildings taking into account pandemic-induced cash flow and discount rate effects. We find a 45% decline in office values in 2020 and 39% in the longer-run, the latter representing a $453 billion value destruction. Higher quality office buildings were somewhat buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower quality office buildings see much more dramatic swings. These valuation changes have repercussions for local public finances and financial sector stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Arpit Gupta & Vrinda Mittal & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2022. "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse," NBER Working Papers 30526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30526
    Note: AP CF EFG PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lalinsky, Tibor & Anyfantaki, Sofia & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Bergeaud, Antonin & Bun, Maurice & Bunel, Simon & Colciago, Andrea & De Mulder, Jan & Lopez, Beatriz Gonzalez & Jarvis, Valerie & Krasno, 2024. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and policy support on productivity," Occasional Paper Series 341, European Central Bank.
    2. Sandro Heiniger & Winfried Koeniger & Michael Lechner, 2022. "The Heterogeneous Response of Real Estate Asset Prices to a Global Shock," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-86, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff & Vernon, Victoria, 2023. "Remote Work, Wages, and Hours Worked in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 16420, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Steven Bond-Smith & Philip McCann, 2022. "The work-from-home revolution and the performance of cities," Working Papers 2022-6, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    5. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Kräussl, Roman & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2023. "The pricing of digital art," CFS Working Paper Series 716, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.
    7. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2023. "The remote work revolution: Impact on real estate values and the urban environment: 2023 AREUEA Presidential Address," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(1), pages 7-48, January.
    8. Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell & Nicholas Smith, 2023. "CMBS Market Evolution and Emerging Risks," Working Papers 23-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Yijia Wen & Li Fang & Qing Li, 2022. "Commercial Real Estate Market at a Crossroads: The Impact of COVID-19 and the Implications to Future Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Brueckner, Jan K. & Sayantani, S., 2023. "Intercity impacts of work-from-home with both remote and non-remote workers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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