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Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020

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  • Casey B. Mulligan

Abstract

Weekly mortality through October 3 is partitioned into normal deaths, COVID, and nonCOVID excess deaths (NCEDs). Before March, the excess is negative for the elderly, likely due to the mild flu season. From March onward, excess deaths are approximately 250,000 of which about 17,000 appear to be a COVID undercount and 30,000 non-COVID. Deaths of despair (drug overdose, suicide, alcohol) in 2017 and 2018 are good predictors of the demographic groups with NCEDs in 2020. The NCEDs are disproportionately experienced by men aged 15-55, including men aged 15-25. Local data on opioid overdoses further support the hypothesis that the pandemic and recession were associated with a 10 to 60 percent increase in deaths of despair above already high pre-pandemic levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020," NBER Working Papers 28303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28303
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    1. Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Prices and Federal Policies in Opioid Markets," Working Papers 2020-10, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "Prices and Federal Policies in Opioid Markets," NBER Working Papers 26812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ruhm, Christopher J., 2019. "Drivers of the fatal drug epidemic," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 25-42.
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    Cited by:

    1. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    2. Brandily, Paul & Brébion, Clément & Briole, Simon & Khoury, Laura, 2021. "A poorly understood disease? The impact of COVID-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan H. Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher M. Whaley, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Policy Responses on Excess Mortality," NBER Working Papers 28930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sakouvogui Kekoura & Guilavogui Mama Genevieve, 2022. "How are the United States Banks faring during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence of Economic Efficiency Measures," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 11-29, January.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Cukierman, Alex & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nair-Desai, Sameer & Xin, Weining, 2022. "Gaps between official and excess Covid-19 mortality measures: The effects of institutional quality and vaccinations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Hania Rahimi-Ardabili & Xiaoqi Feng & Phi-Yen Nguyen & Thomas Astell-Burt, 2022. "Have Deaths of Despair Risen during the COVID-19 Pandemic? A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-12, October.
    7. Clara E. Jace & Christos A. Makridis, 2021. "Does marriage protect mental health? Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2499-2515, November.
    8. Angus Deaton, 2022. "The great divide: education, despair, and death," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 161-168, October.
    9. David J. Hebert & Michael D. Curry, 2022. "Optimal lockdowns," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 263-274, December.
    10. Igor Burstyn & Tran B Huynh, 2021. "Experiences of coping with the first wave of COVID-19 epidemic in Philadelphia, PA: Mixed methods analysis of a cross-sectional survey of worries and symptoms of mood disorders," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-28, October.
    11. Casey B. Mulligan & Robert D. Arnott, 2022. "Non-Covid Excess Deaths, 2020-21: Collateral Damage of Policy Choices?," NBER Working Papers 30104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Audrey Redford & Angela K. Dills, 2021. "The political economy of drug and alcohol regulation during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(4), pages 1175-1209, April.
    13. Paul Brandily & Clément Brébion & Simon Briole & Laura Khoury, 2021. "A Poorly Understood Disease? The Evolution of the Income Gradient in Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 within Urban Areas," Working Papers halshs-03154551, HAL.
    14. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2021. "Excess Deaths in the United States During the First Year of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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