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Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility

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  • Jules H. van Binsbergen

Abstract

Using a panel of international government bond data, I construct fixed income portfolios that match the duration of the dividend strips of the corresponding local aggregate stock market index. I find that these bond portfolios have performed as well as -- if not better than -- their stock counterparts in the past half century while exhibiting similar (or even higher) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles (bubbles). I present several potential explanations, and discuss further the implications for macroeconomics, monetary economics, asset pricing, and corporate finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jules H. van Binsbergen, 2020. "Duration-Based Stock Valuation: Reassessing Stock Market Performance and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 27367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27367
    Note: AP CF EFG ME
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
    2. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization Institute Working Papers 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
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    6. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
    7. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
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    10. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
      • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    12. Cejnek, Georg & Randl, Otto & Zechner, Josef, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Corporate Dividend Policy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(7), pages 2389-2410, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Diamond, William F. & Grotteria, Marco, 2022. "Risk-free interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 1-29.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Overshooting: A Rationale for the Wall/Main Street Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 27712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John R. Graham, 2022. "Presidential Address: Corporate Finance and Reality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 1975-2049, August.
    4. Andrei, Daniel & Carlin, Bruce I., 2023. "Schumpeterian competition in a Lucas economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Thomas Kroen & Ernest Liu & Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Falling Rates and Rising Superstars," Working Papers 2021-3, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    6. Benjamin Knox & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2022. "A Stock Return Decomposition Using Observables," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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