IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26497.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stranded Fossil Fuel Reserves and Firm Value

Author

Listed:
  • Christina Atanasova
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

Do capital markets reflect the possibility that fossil fuel reserves may become “stranded assets” in the transition to a low carbon economy? We examine the relation between oil firms’ value and their proved reserves. Using a sample of 600 North American oil firms for the period 1999 to 2018, we document that while reserves are an important component of oil firm value, the growth of these reserves has a negative effect on firm value. This negative effect on value is stronger for oil producers with higher extraction costs. When we decompose total reserves into developed and undeveloped reserves, we show that the negative effect of reserves growth on value is due to firms growing their undeveloped oil reserves. Unlike developed, undeveloped reserves require major capital expenditures and longer time before they can be extracted. We also document that the negative effect is stronger for undeveloped oil reserves located in countries with strict climate policies. Our evidence is consistent with markets penalizing future investment in undeveloped reserves growth due to climate policy risk. High level of institutional ownership, stock market liquidity and analyst coverage do not change the negative effect of undeveloped reserves growth on firm value.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Atanasova & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Stranded Fossil Fuel Reserves and Firm Value," NBER Working Papers 26497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26497
    Note: AP EEE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26497.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kleimeier, S. & Viehs, P.M., 2016. "Carbon disclosure, emission levels, and the cost of debt," Research Memorandum 003, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Enrico Botta & Tomasz Koźluk, 2014. "Measuring Environmental Policy Stringency in OECD Countries: A Composite Index Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1177, OECD Publishing.
    3. Michael Jakob & Jérôme Hilaire, 2015. "Unburnable fossil-fuel reserves," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 150-151, January.
    4. Hong, Harrison & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2009. "The price of sin: The effects of social norms on markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 15-36, July.
    5. De Haas, Ralph & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Financial development and industrial pollution," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91310, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, 2015. "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7533), pages 187-190, January.
    7. Philipp Krueger & Zacharias Sautner & Laura T Starks, 2020. "The Importance of Climate Risks for Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 1067-1111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Eker & Charlie Wilson & Niklas Hohne & Mark S. McCaffrey & Irene Monasterolo & Leila Niamir & Caroline Zimm, 2023. "A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping," Papers 2309.14964, arXiv.org.
    2. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies," Working Papers No 10/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Breitenstein, Miriam & Anke, Carl-Philipp & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Walther, Thomas, 2019. "Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-out on the German Coal Industry," MPRA Paper 101763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kühne, Kjell & Bartsch, Nils & Tate, Ryan Driskell & Higson, Julia & Habet, André, 2022. "“Carbon Bombs” - Mapping key fossil fuel projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Alessi, Lucia & Elisa, Ossola & Panzica, Roberto, 2021. "When do investors go green? Evidence from a time-varying asset-pricing model," Working Papers 2021-13, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    7. van den Bijgaart, Inge & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2023. "Closing wells: Fossil development and abandonment in the energy transition," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Louis Daumas, 2021. "Should we fear transition risks - A review of the applied literature," Working Papers 2021.05, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    9. Pablo Neudorfer, 2022. "Tail risk in the fossil fuel industry: an option implied analysis around the unburnable carbon news," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 493-511, March.
    10. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2023. "In search of climate distress risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Venturini, Alessio, 2022. "Climate change, risk factors and stock returns: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Simona Malovana & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Zuzana Gric, 2023. "What Do Economists Think About the Green Transition? Exploring the Impact of Environmental Awareness," Working Papers 2023/6, Czech National Bank.
    3. Ramelli, Stefano & Ossola, Elisa & Rancan, Michela, 2020. "Climate Sin Stocks: Stock Price Reactions to Global Climate Strikes," Working Papers 2020-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. Tiziano De Angelis & Peter Tankov & Olivier David Zerbib, 2022. "Climate Impact Investing," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 676 JEL Classification: G, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    5. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    6. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    7. Ilaria Piatti & Joel Shapiro & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Sustainable Investing and Public Goods Provision," Working Papers 969, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2021. "Predicting corporate carbon footprints for climate finance risk analyses: A machine learning approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Ricardo Gimeno & Clara I. González, 2022. "The role of a green factor in stock prices. When Fama & French go green," Working Papers 2207, Banco de España.
    10. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2023. "Issuing bonds during the Covid-19 pandemic: Was there an ESG premium?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Rzeznik, Aleksandra & Weiss-Hanley, Kathleen, 2021. "The Salience of ESG Ratings for Stock Pricing: Evidence From (Potentially) Confused Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 16334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Thomas J. Chemmanur & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Panagiotis Koutroumpis & Yu Zhang, 2022. "CSR and Firm Survival: Evidence from the Climate and Pandemic Crises," Working Papers 935, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Liu, Huajin & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Xiaotao & Li, Donghui, 2023. "Abnormal temperature and retail investors’ trading behavior," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    14. Jonghyuk Bae & Natalya Khimich & Sungsoo Kim & Emanuel Zur, 2023. "Can Green Investments Increase Your Green? Evidence from Social Hedge Fund Activists," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 187(4), pages 781-801, November.
    15. Philippe Dupuy & Jean-Charles Garibal, 2022. "Cross-dispersion bias-adjusted ESG rankings," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(7), pages 631-643, December.
    16. Torsten Ehlers & Frank Packer & Kathrin de Greiff, 2022. "The pricing of carbon risk in syndicated loans: which risks are priced and why?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistics for Sustainable Finance, volume 56, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Zhang, Ran & Li, Yanru & Liu, Yingzhu, 2021. "Green bond issuance and corporate cost of capital," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Giglio, Stefano & Maggiori, Matteo & Stroebel, Johannes & Tan, Zhenhao & Utkus, Stephen & Xu, Xiao, 2023. "Four Facts About Esg Beliefs And Investor Portfolios," SocArXiv dcb93, Center for Open Science.
    19. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner & Richard J Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2021. "Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 748-787.
    20. Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Sumiko Takaoka, 2024. "Sustainability and Credit Spreads in Japan," Springer Books, in: Sumiko Takaoka (ed.), Environmental Technology Innovation and ESG Investment, pages 11-38, Springer.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.