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Capital Markets and Grain Prices: Assessing the Storage Approach

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  • Wolfgang Keller
  • Carol H. Shiue
  • Xin Wang

Abstract

This paper evaluates a well-known approach from the economic history literature that uses grain prices to shed light on interest rates. Although this method has been applied in influential work starting with McCloskey and Nash (1984) and has potentially wide applicability in situations where interest rates are not available, this paper provides the first analysis of how well the storage cost approach captures actual capital market performance on a number of different dimensions. Using matched data on bank interest rates and grain prices for early 19th century U.S. regions, we find that the storage cost approach is useful for quantifying the performance of capital markets. The storage cost approach captures well regional differences in market performance, also in comparison to interest rate figures derived from the prices of bills of exchange. The paper also assesses the storage cost approach’s robustness to measurement error, incomplete information, outliers, and other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue & Xin Wang, 2018. "Capital Markets and Grain Prices: Assessing the Storage Approach," NBER Working Papers 24388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24388
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue & Xin Wang, 2020. "Capital markets and grain prices: assessing the storage cost approach," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 367-396, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N2 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions
    • N61 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

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