Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Price Relations Between July And September Wheat Futures At Chicago Since 1885


Author Info

  • Working, Holbrook
Registered author(s):


    The price spread between July and September wheat is determined primarily by current domestic supplies of all wheat in the United States, conveniently measurable in terms of July 1 carryover. Early in the season the spread may show little relation to the statistical supply position, but by June the relation normally becomes very close. Given an accurate appraisal of the domestic supply position, the price spread in June may usually be predicted with great accuracy. Substantial disparity between the actual spread in June and that to be expected from the supply statistics has occurred in eight years since 1896. In each of these years there was a peculiar market situation-usually a corner or "squeeze" in the futures market. Existence of such a disparity gives. prima facie evidence of abnormal speculative market conditions. Changes in the spread tend to occur in response to influences specifically related to the spread, and not in response to general price influences. The spread-related influences necessarily affect the price of at least one of the two futures. Under certain circumstances they affect the price of July wheat and not the price of September; under other circumstances they affect September and not July; under still other circumstances they affect the price of both futures, but July more than September. The July-September price spread is subject to conspicuous and reliably predictable seasonal changes. Most of these are related to even stronger seasonal tendencies in price of the July future, which have hitherto been only imperfectly understood because their character is dependent in part on factors related to the July-September spread in a way not previously recognized.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Stanford University, Food Research Institute in its journal Wheat Studies.

    Volume (Year): (1933)
    Issue (Month): 06 (March)

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:ags:frisws:142876

    Contact details of provider:

    Related research

    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy;


    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Geman, Hélyette & Smith, William O., 2013. "Theory of storage, inventory and volatility in the LME base metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 18-28.
    2. Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2014. "Dynamic modeling of commodity futures prices," MPRA Paper 56805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cesar Revoredo, 2000. "On The Solution Of The Dynamic Rational Expectations Commodity Storage Model In The Presence Of Stockholding By Speculators And Processors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 42, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. John T. Cuddington & Arturo L. Va'squez Cordano, 2013. "Linkages between spot and futures prices: Tests of the Fama-French-Samuelson hypotheses," Working Papers 2013-09, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    5. Stepanek, Christian & Walter, Matthias & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 395-405.


    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


    Access and download statistics


    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:frisws:142876. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.