Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States
AbstractWe investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation.
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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
- N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
- Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-01-18 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-01-18 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2012-01-18 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-MIG-2012-01-18 (Economics of Human Migration)
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NBER Working Papers
15605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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