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Agricultural Payments and Land Concentration: A Semiparametric Spatial Regression Analysis

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  • Michael J. Roberts
  • Nigel Key

Abstract

Over the last twenty years, both crop production and agricultural payments have shifted toward larger operations. This study examines whether payments from federal farm programs contributed to increased concentration of cropland and farmland. Using zip code—level data constructed from the microfiles of the 1987–2002 agriculture censuses we examine the association between government payments per acre and subsequent growth in land concentration. A semiparametric generalized additive model (GAM) controls for location and historical concentration, sales per acre, and ratio of cropland area to zip code area. Findings indicate, both with and without nonparametric controls, government payments are strongly associated with subsequent concentration growth. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Roberts & Nigel Key, 2008. "Agricultural Payments and Land Concentration: A Semiparametric Spatial Regression Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 627-643.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:90:y:2008:i:3:p:627-643
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01144.x
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    1. Oda, M. & Umetsu, C. & Shen, J., 2018. "The impacts of regional differences on farmland consolidation in Japan: The case of Tohoku, Hokuriku and Kinki," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277389, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Shuaizhang Feng & Michael Oppenheimer & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 17734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. MacDonald, James M., 2011. "Why Are Farms Getting Larger? The Case Of The U.S," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 115361, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71.
    5. He, Xi, 2018. "Bigger Farms and Bigger Food Firms-The Agricultural Origin of Industrial Concentration in the Food Sector," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274206, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Alper Demirdogen & Emine Olhan & Mehmet Hasdemir, 2022. "Heterogeneous impact of agricultural support policies: evidence from Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(10), pages 12203-12225, October.
    7. Legrand D. F. Saint‐Cyr, 2022. "Heterogeneous farm‐size dynamics and impacts of subsidies from agricultural policy: Evidence from France," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 893-923, September.
    8. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers 258013, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    9. Roberts, Michael J. & Key, Nigel D., 2008. "Did the Baby Boom Cause the Farm-Size Boom?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6087, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Juliane Haensch & Sarah Ann Wheeler & Alec Zuo, 2021. "Explaining permanent and temporary water market trade patterns within local areas in the southern Murray–Darling Basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(2), pages 318-348, April.
    11. Vratislava Janovska & Petra Simova & Josef Vlasak & Petr Sklenicka, 2017. "Factors affecting farm size on the European level and the national level of the Czech Republic," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 1-12.
    12. John M. Crespi & Stéphan Marette, 2020. "A Theory for Why Large Farms need Small Farms," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 20-wp599, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. Samiul Haque, 2022. "US federal farm payments and farm size: Quantile estimation on panel data," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 139-154, February.
    14. Azzam, Azzeddine & Walters, Cory & Kaus, Taylor, 2021. "Does subsidized crop insurance affect farm industry structure? Lessons from the U.S," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1167-1180.
    15. Arimoto, Yutaka & Lee, Changmin, 2014. "Did Japanese direct investment in Korea suppress indigenous industrialization in the 1930s? : evidence from country-level factory entry patterns," IDE Discussion Papers 450, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. MacDonald, James M. & Korb, Penni & Hoppe, Robert A., 2013. "Farm Size and the Organization of U.S. Crop Farming," Economic Research Report 262221, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Burns, Christopher & Prager, Daniel, "undated". "Do Direct Payments and Crop Insurance Influence Commercial Farm Survival and Decisions to Expand?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235693, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Taisuke Takayama & Tomoaki Nakatani & Tetsuji Senda & Takeshi Fujie, 2021. "Less‐favoured‐area payments, farmland abandonment and farm size: evidence from hilly and mountainous areas in Japan," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 658-678, July.
    19. Mark, Tyler B. & Detre, Joshua & D'Antoni, Jeremy & Mishra, Ashok, 2012. "Factors Influencing Farm Operator Expectations on Future Levels of Government Support," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2012, pages 1-17.
    20. Daniel A. Sumner, 2014. "American Farms Keep Growing: Size, Productivity, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 147-166, Winter.
    21. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
    22. Burns, Christopher B. & Prager, Daniel L., 2018. "Does Crop Insurance Influence Commercial Crop Farm Decisions to Expand? An Analysis Using Panel Data from the Census of Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    23. Zier, Patrick & Petrick, Martin, 2010. "Cap Reform And The Effects Of Direct Payments On Heterogeneous Farm Structures In East Germany," 50th Annual Conference, Braunschweig, Germany, September 29-October 1, 2010 93948, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

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