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Spatial Competition and Cross-border Shopping: Evidence from State Lotteries

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  • Brian G. Knight
  • Nathan Schiff

Abstract

This paper investigates competition between jurisdictions in the context of cross-border shopping for state lottery tickets. We first develop a simple theoretical model in which consumers choose between state lotteries and face a trade-off between travel costs and the price of a fair gamble, which is declining in the size of the jackpot and the odds of winning. Given this trade-off, the model predicts that per-resident sales should be more responsive to prices in small states with densely populated borders, relative to large states with sparsely populated borders. Our empirical analysis focuses on the multi-state games of Powerball and Mega Millions, and the identification strategy is based upon high-frequency variation in prices due to the rollover feature of lottery jackpots. The empirical results support the predictions of the model. The magnitude of these effects is large, suggesting that states do face competitive pressures from neighboring lotteries, but the effects vary significantly across states.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian G. Knight & Nathan Schiff, 2010. "Spatial Competition and Cross-border Shopping: Evidence from State Lotteries," NBER Working Papers 15713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15713
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    Cited by:

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    3. Agrawal, David R., 2014. "LOST in America: Evidence on local sales taxes from national panel data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    4. Kathryn L. Combs & John A. Spry, 2019. "The Effects Of Lotto Game Changes And Large Jackpots On Income Elasticities And Sales," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 261-273, April.
    5. Head, Keith & , & Tappata, Mariano, 2012. "Consumer Arbitrage Across a Porous Border," CEPR Discussion Papers 8730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Luke P. Rodgers, 2020. "Don’t Tax My Dreams: The Lottery Sales Response to Gambling Tax Changes," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(5), pages 627-649, September.
    7. Orrin David Gulley, 2018. "The optimal structure of lotto games," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 156-161.
    8. Agrawal, David R. & Trandel, Gregory A., 2019. "Dynamics of policy adoption with state dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Fr d ric Kluser, 2023. "Cross-Border Shopping: Evidence from Household Transaction Records," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper42, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    10. Cohen, Alex & Keiser, David A., 2017. "The effectiveness of incomplete and overlapping pollution regulation: Evidence from bans on phosphate in automatic dishwasher detergent," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 53-74.
    11. Andrés Leal & Julio López-Laborda & Fernando Rodrigo, 2014. "The Inside and Outside Revenue Impact of Regional Gambling Taxes in Spain," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 79-97, March.
    12. Marcelo Castro & Enlinson Mattos, 2021. "Measuring Fiscal Spillovers in Brazilian Municipalities," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(2), pages 221-261, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General

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