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The Impact of Credit Protection on Stock Prices in the Presence of Credit Crunches

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  • Galina Hale
  • Assaf Razin
  • Hui Tong

Abstract

Data show that better creditor protection is correlated across countries with lower average stock market volatility. Moreover, countries with better creditor protection seem to have suffered lower decline in their stock market indexes during the current financial crisis. To explain this regularity, we use a Tobin q model of investment and show that stronger creditor protection increases the expected level and lowers the variance of stock prices in the presence of credit crunches. There are two main channels through which creditor protection enhances the performance of the stock market: (1) The credit-constrained stock price increases with better protection of creditors; (2) The probability of a credit crunch leading to a binding credit constraint falls with strong protection of creditors. These mechanisms are consistent with the patterns observed in the cross-country data. We find that except for OECD countries with low creditor protection, stock market return is negative in the crisis years and positive in non-crisis years.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15141.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Publication status: published as Galina Hale & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2009. "The impact of creditor protection on stock prices in the presence of credit crunches," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15141

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  1. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Micco, 2005. "Creditor Protection and Credit Volatility," Research Department Publications 4401, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Foreign Participation in Local Currency Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A Calvo, 2006. "Phoenix miracles in emerging markets: recovering without credit from systemic financial crises," BIS Working Papers 221, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 7.
  5. Hart, Oliver & Moore, John, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-79, November.
  6. James J. Heckman, 1977. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," NBER Working Papers 0177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2001. "High- and Low-Frequency Exchange Rate Volatility Dynamics: Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," NBER Working Papers 8162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Galina Hale & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Institutional Weakness and Stock Price Volatility," NBER Working Papers 12127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Dmitry Livdan & Horacio Sapriza & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Financially Constrained Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1827-1862, 08.
  10. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
  11. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
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Cited by:
  1. World Bank, 2012. "Resilience, Equity, and Opportunity," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12648, The World Bank.

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