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Trade Restrictiveness and Deadweight Losses from U.S. Tariffs, 1859-1961

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Author Info
Douglas A. Irwin
Abstract

This paper uses detailed tariff data to calculate the Anderson-Neary trade restrictiveness index (TRI) for the United States in 1859 and annually from 1867 to 1961. The TRI is defined as the uniform tariff that yields the same welfare loss as an existing tariff structure. The import-weighted average tariff understates the TRI by about 70 percent over this period. This approach also yields annual estimates of the static welfare loss from the tariff structure; the largest losses occur in the early 1870s (about one percent of GDP) but they fall almost continuously thereafter to less than one-tenth of one percent of GDP by the early 1960s. On average, import duties produced a welfare loss of 40 cents for every dollar of revenue generated, slightly higher than contemporary estimates of the marginal welfare cost of taxation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13450.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13450

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
N71 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
N72 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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  1. Kee, Hiau Looi & Nicita, Alessandro & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2006. "Estimating trade restrictiveness indices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3840, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 508, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Arvind Panagariya, 2002. "Cost of Protection: Where Do We Stand?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 175-179, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Feenstra, R.C., 1995. "Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy," Papers 95-10, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
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  5. Sami Dakhlia & Akram Temimi, 2004. "An extension of the trade restrictiveness index to large economies," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques b04053, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  6. Ballard, Charles L & Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1985. "General Equilibrium Computations of the Marginal Welfare Costs of Taxes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 128-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rousslang, Donald J, 1987. "The Opportunity Cost of Import Tariffs," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 88-102.
  9. Irwin, Douglas A., 2007. "Tariff Incidence in America's Gilded Age," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(03), pages 582-607, September. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marquez, Jaime, 1994. "The Econometrics of Elasticities or the Elasticity of Econometrics: An Empirical Analysis of the Behavior of U.S. Imports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 471-81, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 102-16, February.
  12. Feenstra, Robert C, 1992. "How Costly Is Protectionism?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 159-78, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rousslang, Donald J & Tokarick, Stephen P, 1995. "Estimating the Welfare Cost of Tariffs: The Roles of Leisure and Domestic Taxes," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 83-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. O'Rourke, Kevin H., 1997. "Measuring protection: a cautionary tale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 169-183, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harry G. Johnson, 1960. "The Cost of Protection and the Scientific Tariff," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68, pages 327. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Krueger, Anne O, 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 291-303, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pavcnik, Nina, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvement: Evidence from Chilean Plants," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 245-76, January.
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