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The Labor Market and Macro Volatility: A Nonstationary General-Equilibrium Analysis

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  • Robert E. Hall

Abstract

The evolution of the aggregate labor market is far from smooth. I investigate the success of a macro model in replicating the observed levels of volatility of unemployment and other key variables. I take variations in productivity growth and in exogenous product demand (government purchases plus net exports) as the primary exogenous sources of fluctuations. The macro model embodies new ideas about the labor market, all based on equilibrium %u2013 the models I consider do not rest on inefficiency in the use of labor caused by an inappropriate wage. I find that non-standard features of the labor market are essential for understanding the volatility of unemployment. These models include simple equilibrium wage stickiness, where the sticky wage is an equilibrium selection rule. A second model based on modern bargaining theory delivers a different kind of stickiness and has a unique equilibrium. A third model posits fluctuations in matching efficiency that may arise from variations over time in the information about prospective jobs among job-seekers. Reasonable calibrations of each of the three models match the observed volatility of unemployment.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11684.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11684

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  1. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  2. Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lucas, Deborah J., 1994. "Asset pricing with undiversifiable income risk and short sales constraints: Deepening the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-341, December.
  5. Ken Binmore & Ariel Rubinstein & Asher Wolinsky, 1986. "The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modelling," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(2), pages 176-188, Summer.
  6. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  8. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March.
  9. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2004. "Unemployment and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 277-298, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2006. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 525, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Francesco Zanetti, 2006. "Labor Market Frictions into Staggered Wage Contracts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(13), pages 1-7.
  3. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2005. "Shooting the Auctioneer," 2005 Meeting Papers 26, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Ramey, Garey, 2008. "Exogenous vs. Endogenous Separation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0qb196qd, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

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