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Are Alcohol Excise Taxes Good For Us? Short and Long-Term Effects on Mortality Rates

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Author Info
Philip J. Cook
Jan Ostermann
Frank A. Sloan

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Abstract

Regression results from a 30-year panel of the state-level data indicate that changes in alcohol-excise taxes cause a reduction in drinking and lower all-cause mortality in the short run. But those results do not fully capture the long-term mortality effects of a permanent change in drinking levels. In particular, since moderate drinking has a protective effect against heart disease in middle age, it is possible that a reduction in per capita drinking will result in some people drinking "too little" and dying sooner than they otherwise would. To explore that possibility, we simulate the effect of a one percent reduction in drinking on all-cause mortality for the age group 35-69, using several alternative assumptions about how the reduction is distributed across this population. We find that the long-term mortality effect of a one percent reduction in drinking is essentially nil.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11138.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11138

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I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cook, Philip J., 1988. "Increasing the federal excise taxes on alcoholic beverages," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 89-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Clements, Kenneth W & Yang, Wana & Zheng, Simon W, 1997. "Is Utility Additive? The Case of Alcohol," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1163-67, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Philip J. Cook & George Tauchen, 1982. "The Effect of Liquor Taxes on Heavy Drinking," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 379-390, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenneth W. Clements & Wana Yang & Simon W. Zheng, 1997. "Is utility additive? The case of alcohol," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1163-1167, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Philip J. Cook & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Environment and Persistence in Youthful Drinking Patterns," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 375-438 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ruhm, Christopher J., 1995. "Economic conditions and alcohol problems," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 583-603, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Frank A. Sloan & Justin G. Trogdon, 2004. "Litigation and the Political Clout of the Tobacco Companies: Cigarette Taxes, Prices, and the Master Settlement Agreement," HEW 0411002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Henry Saffer & Michael Grossman, 1987. "Beer Taxes, the Legal Drinking Age, and Youth Motor Vehicle Fatalities," NBER Working Papers 1914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Frank J. Chaloupka & Henry Saffer & Michael Grossman, 1993. "Alcohol Control Policies and Motor Vehicle Fatalities," NBER Working Papers 3831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Saffer, Henry & Grossman, Michael, 1987. "Drinking Age Laws and Highway Mortality Rates: Cause and Effect," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 403-17, July.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and taxation: theory and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philip J. Cook & Jan Ostermann & Frank A. Sloan, 2005. "The Net Effect of an Alcohol Tax Increase on Death Rates in Middle Age," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 278-281, May. [Downloadable!]
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