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Market Integration and Economic Development: A Long-run Comparison

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Author Info
Wolfgang Keller
Carol H. Shiue

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Abstract

How much of China's recent economic performance can be attributed to market-oriented reforms introduced in the last two decades? A long-run perspective may be important for understanding the process of economic development occurring today. This paper compares the integration of rice markets in China today and 270 years ago. In the 18th century, transport technology was non-mechanized, but markets were close to being free markets. We distinguish local harvest and weather from aggregate sources of price variation in a historical sample and in a similarly constructed contemporary sample. Findings indicate the degree of market integration in the 1720s is a very good predictor of per capita income in the 1990s. Moreover, the current pattern of interregional income in China is strongly linked to persistent geographic factors that were already apparent several centuries ago, well before the enactment of modern reform programs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10300.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10300

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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  1. Hummels, David, 2001. "Time as a Trade Barrier," GTAP Working Papers 1152, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Wolfgang Keller & Carol H. Shiue, 2003. "The Origins of Spatial Interaction," NBER Working Papers 10069, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kevin O’rourke & Jeffrey Williamson, 2005. "From Malthus to Ohlin: Trade, Industrialisation and Distribution Since 1500," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 5-34, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carol H. Shiue, 2002. "Transport Costs and the Geography of Arbitrage in Eighteenth-Century China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1406-1419, December. [Downloadable!]
  6. Dinopoulos, Elias & Segerstrom, Paul, 2003. "A Theory of North-South Trade and Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 4140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor'S Edge: Distortions And Incremental Reform In The People'S Republic Of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2002. "The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Keller, Wolfgang, 1998. "Are international R&D spillovers trade-related?: Analyzing spillovers among randomly matched trade partners," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1469-1481, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Abhijit Banerjee & Lakshmi Iyer, 2005. "History, Institutions, and Economic Performance: The Legacy of Colonial Land Tenure Systems in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1190-1213, September. [Downloadable!]
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