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Liberalization in China's Key Service Sectors Following WTO Accession: Some Scenarios and Issues of Measurement

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  • John Whalley

Abstract

This paper documents and assesses the significance of the policy changes in China that WTO accession implies in 3 key service categories (banking, insurance, and telecoms), asking whether it is likely they will really be fully implemented in their entirety as undertaken at signature in 2002. While it would seem that China will have extraordinarily open markets for these services by 2007 (and for banking, perhaps in the world), the starting point for implementing these policy changes seems so highly restricted that doubts have been raised about the feasibility of implementing such changes over such a short time even if threats of eventual retaliation from WTO partners speeds things along. WTO members are monitoring the implementation of China's WTO commitments, and following dispute settlement might retaliate in the future were these agreed changes not to be implemented. I discuss what scenarios this liberalization might follow, and ask whether these commitments can really be implemented as undertaken.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10143.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10143

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  1. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow, 2002. "Multilateral liberalisation of services trade," International Trade 0207002, EconWPA.
  2. Bhattarai, Keshab & John Whalley, 1998. "The Division and Size of Gains from Liberalization in Service Networks," CSGR Working papers series 03/98, Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick.
  3. John Whalley, 2004. "Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1223-1253, 08.
  4. Ryan, Cillian, 1992. "The Integration of Financial Services and Economic Welfare after `1992'," CEPR Discussion Papers 677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Melvin, James R, 1989. "Trade in Producer Services: A Heckscher-Ohlin Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1180-96, October.
  6. Terrie L. Walmsley & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(8), pages 1019-1049, 09.
  7. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1984. "Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility : Calculations and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-75.
  8. Ngee Choon Chia & Whalley, John, 1997. "A numerical example showing globally welfare-worsening liberalization of international trade in banking services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 119-127, April.
  9. Cillian Ryan, 1990. "Trade Liberalisation and Financial Services," NBER Chapters, in: New Issues in the Uruguay Round, pages 349-366 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. John P. Bonin & Yiping Huang, 2002. "Foreign Entry into Chinese Banking: Does WTO Membership Threaten Domestic Banks?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(8), pages 1077-1093, 08.
  11. Cull, Robert & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2000. "Bureaucrats, State Banks, and the Efficiency of Credit Allocation: The Experience of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-31, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Whalley, John, 2005. "Pitfalls in the Use of Ad valorem Equivalent Representations of the Trade Impacts of Domestic Policies," Commissioned Papers 24164, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
  2. Barros, Carlos P. & Chen, Zhongfei & Liang, Qi Bin & Peypoch, Nicolas, 2011. "Technical efficiency in the Chinese banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2083-2089, September.
  3. Agata Antkiewicz & John Whalley, 2005. "China's New Regional Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1539-1557, October.
  4. Glenda Mallon & John Whalley, 2004. "China's Post Accession WTO Stance," NBER Working Papers 10649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Beoy Kui Ng, 2005. "Globalization and the Rise of China: Their Impact on Ethnic Chinese Business in Singapore," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0506, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  6. Chi-Yung Ng & John Whalley, 2004. "Geographical Extension of Free Trade Zones as Trade Liberalization: A Numerical Simulation Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1147, CESifo Group Munich.

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