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Explaining the Changing Dynamics of Unemployment: Evidence from Civil War Records

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Dora L. Costa

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Abstract

I investigate why workers' probability of leaving unemployment has fallen since 1900 by estimating the impact of a large government transfer, the first major pension program in the United States, covering Union Army veterans of the Civil War. The pension, because of the program's rules, was a strict income transfer and these rules create a natural experiment to identify the effects of pensions and health on labor supply. Pensions exerted a large impact on the probability of long-term, but not of short-term unemployment. Estimated hazards suggest that, consistent with a job search model, pensions affected the probability of both entering and exiting unemployment. But, pensions mainly lowered the probability of leaving unemployment. The findings suggest that explanations for the secular rise in long-term unemployment should focus on factors such as the secular increase in wealth and the increased availability and generosity of unemployment benefits.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Historical Working Papers with number 0051.

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Date of creation: Dec 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberhi:0051

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Robert W. Fogel & Larry T. Wimmer, 1992. "Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease, and Death," NBER Historical Working Papers 0038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Feldstein, Martin S, 1978. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Temporary Layoff Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 834-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis And The European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Stanley Engerman & Claudia Goldin, 1991. "Seasonality in Nineteenth Century Labor Markets," NBER Historical Working Papers 0020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Goldin, Claudia, 1979. "Household and market production of families in a late nineteenth century American city," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 111-131, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeremy Atack & Fred Bateman, 1990. "How Long Was the Workday in 1880?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. J.M. Etienne & A. Skalli, 2003. "Health Status and Socio-Economic Inequalities : A Review of the French Litterature," Working Papers ERMES 0317, ERMES, University Paris 2. [Downloadable!]
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