IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evolution of the impact of the interest rates changes announced by Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) on the financial markets in the high, medium and low level of interest rates environments in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Janusz Brzeszczyński

    (Newcastle Business School (NBS), Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom; University of Łódź, Poland)

  • Jerzy Gajdka

    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Ali M. Kutan

    (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville (SIUE), Edwardsville, IL, USA The Center for European Integration Studies (ZEI), Bonn, Germany The Emerging Markets Group (EMG), London, United Kingdom The William Davidson Institute (WDI), Ann Arbor, MI, USA)

Abstract

The objective of this study is the analysis of the Polish financial market’s responses to interest rates changes announced by the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) during the period when they evolved from high to low levels. We use GARCH models and we focus comprehensively on four market segments, i.e.: foreign exchange market, stock market, bonds market and derivatives market. The sample period covers over 17 years from August 2000 until December 2017. Reactions of the financial market in Poland were measured with respect to the nominal changes in interest rates and to their surprise changes (relative to market expectations). The main conclusion from our study is that in all the investigated market segments the Polish financial market became consistently less responsive to interest rates decisions in the lower interest rates environment. Furthermore, stronger reactions in foreign exchange market and in stock market were detected in case of interest rates changing upwards rather than downwards, however in bonds market this effect was opposite. When interest rates were announced at different level than expected, the picture is ambiguous. Moreover, the effects in the conditional variance of the GARCH models indicate the existence of stabilizing effects of the NBP communication on the stock market in Poland, but the estimation results for other market segments are mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • Janusz Brzeszczyński & Jerzy Gajdka & Ali M. Kutan, 2019. "Evolution of the impact of the interest rates changes announced by Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) on the financial markets in the high, medium and low level of interest rates environments in Poland," NBP Working Papers 303, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:303
    Note: This research project was conducted under the VIII NBP open competition for research projects and was financed by Narodowy Bank Polski. This paper represents the opinions of the authors. It is not meant to represent the position of the NBP. Any errors and omissions are the fault of the authors.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://static.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy-i-studia/303_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    2. Wongswan, Jon, 2009. "The response of global equity indexes to U.S. monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 344-365, March.
    3. Wu, Wenbin, 2016. "Are financial markets less responsive to monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 258-261.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2018. "Relief Rallies after FOMC Announcements as a Resolution of Uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    3. Ali Ozdagli, 2013. "Not so fast: high-frequency financial data for macroeconomic event studies," Working Papers 13-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. King, Thomas B., 2019. "Expectation and duration at the effective lower bound," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 736-760.
    5. Dumas, Bernard & Savioz, Marcel René, 2020. "A Theory of the Nominal Character of Stock Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Bauer, Michael D. & Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "International channels of the Fed's unconventional monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 24-46.
    7. Eksi, Ozan & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-147.
    8. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
    11. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    13. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    14. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2015. "The QE experience : Worth a try ?," Post-Print hal-03459951, HAL.
    15. Bartkiewicz Piotr, 2018. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Emerging Markets – Literature Review," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 67-76, December.
    16. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    17. Kerstin Bernoth & Marcel Fratzscher & Philipp König, 2014. "Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(12), pages 235-249.
    18. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials," CEPS Papers 11266, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    19. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jakub Growiec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.