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Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik

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  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Philipp König

Abstract

Inflation in the euro area has been below the European Central Bank's target for almost a year now and it is also expected to remain at a very low level in the near future. On the one hand, such a low level of inflation is not in line with the ECB's objective. On the other hand, there is the risk that this situation will lead to a slide into deflation. In view of the ECB's historically low policy rates, the question arises as to which monetary policy options are available. In order to counteract possible deflation, primarily unconventional measures remain open to the ECB, such as outright purchases of securities. But the onus is also on fiscal and economic policy to actively address low inflation and the risks of deflation. Die Inflationsrate im Euroraum liegt seit knapp einem Jahr unterhalb der von der Europäischen Zentralbank angestrebten Zielmarke und wird voraussichtlich auch in der kommenden Zeit auf einem sehr niedrigen Niveau verharren. Zum einen steht eine solch geringe Inflation nicht im Einklang mit der Zielsetzung der EZB, zum anderen besteht in dieser Situation die Gefahr, in eine Deflation abzurutschen. Angesichts der historisch niedrigen Leitzinsen drängt sich die Frage nach den geldpolitischen Optionen auf. Der Handlungsspielraum der EZB ist beschränkt. Es verbleiben ihr vor allem unkonventionelle Maßnahmen, wie endgültige Käufe von Wertpapieren, um einer etwaigen Deflation entgegenzuwirken. Aber auch die Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik ist jetzt gefragt, der niedrigen Inflation und den Deflationsrisiken aktiv zu begegnen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal DIW Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 81 (2014)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 235-249

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:81-12-1

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Keywords: Monetary policy; deflation; ECB; Euro Area;

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  1. Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien & Manganelli, Simone & Vergote, Olivier, 2013. "A high frequency assessment of the ECB Securities Markets Programme," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Vasco Curdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "The Central Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers, Columbia University, Department of Economics 0910-16, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2013. "Assessing asset purchases within the ECB’s securities markets programme," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1587, European Central Bank.
  5. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-74, June.
  6. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F447-F466, November.
  7. Ferdinand Fichtner & Simon Junker & Guido Baldi & Jacek Bednarz & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Christian Dreger & Hella Engerer & Christoph Große Steffen & Philipp König & Claus Michelsen & Malte , 2013. "Herbstgrundlinien 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(38), pages 3-40.
  8. Jack Meaning & Feng Zhu, 2011. "The impact of recent central bank asset purchase programmes," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, December.
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