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Passing the Buck: Impacts of Commodity Price Shocks on Local Outcomes

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  • Arthur Grimes

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Sean Hyland

    ()
    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

The extent to which exogenous international agricultural price fluctuations are internalised by rural communities is of major interest for policy-makers concerned with regional economic performance. So too is the link between rural sector performance and urban outcomes, especially in agriculturally-based economies. Through vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling we estimate the causal effect of exogenous commodity price innovations on both rural and urban community outcomes. Our analysis demonstrates that restricting the focus to national effects may lead to incorrect inference. We therefore extend the analysis to a VAR using panel data covering all New Zealand districts over 1991–2011. House prices and housing investment are used as quarterly indicators of regional economic and population outcomes. By exploiting the variation in production bundles across communities we find that an increase in commodity prices leads to a permanent increase in housing investment and house prices across the country. However, we find that rural communities are relatively insulated from commodity price shocks, whereas urban areas are most affected by commodity price shocks. We discuss the reasons why this paradoxical result may arise.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in its series Working Papers with number 13_10.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:13_10

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Related research

Keywords: Agricultural commodity prices; rural-urban interactions; house prices; housing investment;

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References

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  1. Arthur Grimes & David C. Maré & Melanie Morten, 2006. "Defining Areas: Linking Geographic Data in New Zealand," Working Papers 06_07, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  2. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts," NBER Working Papers 18569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland & Andrew Coleman & James Kerr & Alex Collier, 2013. "A New Zealand Regional Housing Model," Working Papers 13_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  4. Ren�e Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-60, December.
  5. Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Jian Sun, 2004. "A Simple Alternative House Price Index Method," FAME Research Paper Series rp119, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  6. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
  7. Gozgor, Giray, 2011. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 34370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Richard Hornbeck & Pinar Keskin, 2012. "Does Agriculture Generate Local Economic Spillovers? Short-run and Long-run Evidence from the Ogallala Aquifer," NBER Working Papers 18416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
  10. Hornbeck, Richard A., 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," Scholarly Articles 11303325, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Grimes, Arthur, 2006. "A smooth ride: Terms of trade, volatility and GDP growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 583-600, October.
  12. JunJie Wu & Munisamy Gopinath, 2008. "What Causes Spatial Variations in Economic Development in the United States?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 392-408.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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