IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/msh/ebswps/2021-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Approximating Bayes in the 21st Century

Author

Listed:
  • Gael M. Martin
  • David T. Frazier
  • Christian P. Robert

Abstract

The 21st century has seen an enormous growth in the development and use of approximate Bayesian methods. Such methods produce computational solutions to certain `intractable' statistical problems that challenge exact methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo: for instance, models with unavailable likelihoods, high-dimensional models, and models featuring large data sets. These approximate methods are the subject of this review. The aim is to help new researchers in particular -- and more generally those interested in adopting a Bayesian approach to empirical work -- distinguish between different approximate techniques; understand the sense in which they are approximate; appreciate when and why particular methods are useful; and see the ways in which they can can be combined.

Suggested Citation

  • Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2021. "Approximating Bayes in the 21st Century," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2021-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.monash.edu/business/ebs/research/publications/ebs/wp24-2021.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    2. David M. Blei & Alp Kucukelbir & Jon D. McAuliffe, 2017. "Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(518), pages 859-877, April.
    3. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén & Smith, Michael Stanley & Nott, David J. & Danaher, Peter J., 2022. "Fast and accurate variational inference for models with many latent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 339-362.
    4. James E. Johndrow & Aaron Smith & Natesh Pillai & David B. Dunson, 2019. "MCMC for Imbalanced Categorical Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(527), pages 1394-1403, July.
    5. David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin & Bonsoo Koo, 2021. "Loss-Based Variational Bayes Prediction," Papers 2104.14054, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    6. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Anna Simoni, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(524), pages 1656-1668, October.
    7. Carpenter, Bob & Gelman, Andrew & Hoffman, Matthew D. & Lee, Daniel & Goodrich, Ben & Betancourt, Michael & Brubaker, Marcus & Guo, Jiqiang & Li, Peter & Riddell, Allen, 2017. "Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i01).
    8. Simon Barthelmé & Nicolas Chopin, 2014. "Expectation Propagation for Likelihood-Free Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(505), pages 315-333, March.
    9. Matias Quiroz & Robert Kohn & Mattias Villani & Minh-Ngoc Tran, 2019. "Speeding Up MCMC by Efficient Data Subsampling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 831-843, April.
    10. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 409-431, August.
    11. Yixin Wang & David M. Blei, 2019. "Frequentist Consistency of Variational Bayes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(527), pages 1147-1161, July.
    12. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    14. Bortot, P. & Coles, S.G. & Sisson, S.A., 2007. "Inference for Stereological Extremes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 84-92, March.
    15. Frazier, David T. & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & McCabe, Brendan P.M., 2019. "Approximate Bayesian forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 521-539.
    16. Peter E. Rossi & Greg M. Allenby, 2003. "Bayesian Statistics and Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 304-328, July.
    17. Laurent E. Calvet & Veronika Czellar, 2015. "Accurate Methods for Approximate Bayesian Computation Filtering," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 798-838.
    18. Ruben Loaiza‐Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier, 2021. "Focused Bayesian prediction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 517-543, August.
    19. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Yu, Xuewen, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392, April.
    21. Paul Fearnhead & Dennis Prangle, 2012. "Constructing summary statistics for approximate Bayesian computation: semi-automatic approximate Bayesian computation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 74(3), pages 419-474, June.
    22. Christopher C. Drovandi & Anthony N. Pettitt & Malcolm J. Faddy, 2011. "Approximate Bayesian computation using indirect inference," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(3), pages 317-337, May.
    23. Ardia, David & Baştürk, Nalan & Hoogerheide, Lennart & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012. "A comparative study of Monte Carlo methods for efficient evaluation of marginal likelihood," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3398-3414.
    24. Wentao Li & Paul Fearnhead, 2018. "On the asymptotic efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation estimators," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(2), pages 285-299.
    25. Thomas A. Dean & Sumeetpal S. Singh & Ajay Jasra & Gareth W. Peters, 2014. "Parameter Estimation for Hidden Markov Models with Intractable Likelihoods," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(4), pages 970-987, December.
    26. Espen Bernton & Pierre E. Jacob & Mathieu Gerber & Christian P. Robert, 2019. "Approximate Bayesian computation with the Wasserstein distance," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 81(2), pages 235-269, April.
    27. Bauwens, Luc & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1985. "A 1-1 poly-t random variable generator with application to Monte Carlo integration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 19-46.
    28. Ajay Jasra, 2015. "Approximate Bayesian Computation for a Class of Time Series Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(3), pages 405-435, December.
    29. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3549 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Joyce Paul & Marjoram Paul, 2008. "Approximately Sufficient Statistics and Bayesian Computation," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, August.
    31. David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert & Judith Rousseau, 2020. "Model misspecification in approximate Bayesian computation: consequences and diagnostics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 82(2), pages 421-444, April.
    32. Simon N. Wood, 2010. "Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 466(7310), pages 1102-1104, August.
    33. Korobilis, Dimitris & Koop, Gary, 2018. "Variational Bayes inference in high-dimensional time-varying parameter models," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 22665, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    34. Jeffrey W. Miller & David B. Dunson, 2019. "Robust Bayesian Inference via Coarsening," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(527), pages 1113-1125, July.
    35. David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin, 2021. "Variational Bayes in State Space Models: Inferential and Predictive Accuracy," Papers 2106.12262, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    36. Braun, Michael & McAuliffe, Jon, 2010. "Variational Inference for Large-Scale Models of Discrete Choice," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 324-335.
    37. Wentao Li & Paul Fearnhead, 2018. "Convergence of regression-adjusted approximate Bayesian computation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(2), pages 301-318.
    38. Ormerod, J. T. & Wand, M. P., 2010. "Explaining Variational Approximations," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(2), pages 140-153.
    39. P. G. Bissiri & C. C. Holmes & S. G. Walker, 2016. "A general framework for updating belief distributions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1103-1130, November.
    40. D T Frazier & G M Martin & C P Robert & J Rousseau, 2018. "Asymptotic properties of approximate Bayesian computation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 105(3), pages 593-607.
    41. J. C. Naylor & A. F. M. Smith, 1982. "Applications of a Method for the Efficient Computation of Posterior Distributions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 31(3), pages 214-225, November.
    42. Mathieu Gerber & Nicolas Chopin, 2015. "Sequential quasi Monte Carlo," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(3), pages 509-579, June.
    43. M. P. Wand, 2017. "Fast Approximate Inference for Arbitrarily Large Semiparametric Regression Models via Message Passing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 137-168, January.
    44. George Deligiannidis & Arnaud Doucet & Michael K. Pitt, 2018. "The correlated pseudomarginal method," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 80(5), pages 839-870, November.
    45. A. Doucet & M. K. Pitt & G. Deligiannidis & R. Kohn, 2015. "Efficient implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo when using an unbiased likelihood estimator," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 102(2), pages 295-313.
    46. Mark A. Beaumont & Jean-Marie Cornuet & Jean-Michel Marin & Christian P. Robert, 2009. "Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(4), pages 983-990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2022. "Computing Bayes: From Then `Til Now," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/22, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2020. "Computing Bayes: Bayesian Computation from 1763 to the 21st Century," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2022. "Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review," Papers 2212.03471, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    4. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Christian P. Robert, 2022. "Computing Bayes: From Then `Til Now," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/22, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    5. Chaya Weerasinghe & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier, 2023. "ABC-based Forecasting in State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Gael M. Martin, 2021. "Variational Bayes in State Space Models: Inferential and Predictive Accuracy," Papers 2106.12262, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    7. Henri Pesonen & Umberto Simola & Alvaro Köhn‐Luque & Henri Vuollekoski & Xiaoran Lai & Arnoldo Frigessi & Samuel Kaski & David T. Frazier & Worapree Maneesoonthorn & Gael M. Martin & Jukka Corander, 2023. "ABC of the future," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 91(2), pages 243-268, August.
    8. Frazier, David T. & Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & McCabe, Brendan P.M., 2019. "Approximate Bayesian forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 521-539.
    9. Jonathan U Harrison & Ruth E Baker, 2020. "An automatic adaptive method to combine summary statistics in approximate Bayesian computation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, August.
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Hajargasht, Gholamreza & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2019. "Multilateral index number systems for international price comparisons: Properties, existence and uniqueness," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 36-47.
    12. Bruno Jacobs & Dennis Fok & Bas Donkers, 2021. "Understanding Large-Scale Dynamic Purchase Behavior," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(5), pages 844-870, September.
    13. Creel, Michael & Kristensen, Dennis, 2015. "ABC of SV: Limited information likelihood inference in stochastic volatility jump-diffusion models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 85-108.
    14. Lee, Xing Ju & Hainy, Markus & McKeone, James P. & Drovandi, Christopher C. & Pettitt, Anthony N., 2018. "ABC model selection for spatial extremes models applied to South Australian maximum temperature data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 128-144.
    15. Rub'en Loaiza-Maya & Didier Nibbering, 2022. "Efficient variational approximations for state space models," Papers 2210.11010, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    16. D.T. Frazier & G.M. Martin & C.P. Robert & J. Rousseau, 2016. "Asymptotic Properties of Approximate Bayesian Computation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    17. Li, J. & Nott, D.J. & Fan, Y. & Sisson, S.A., 2017. "Extending approximate Bayesian computation methods to high dimensions via a Gaussian copula model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 77-89.
    18. Forneron, Jean-Jacques & Ng, Serena, 2018. "The ABC of simulation estimation with auxiliary statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 112-139.
    19. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2023. "Bayesian Dynamic Variable Selection In High Dimensions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1047-1074, August.
    20. Dimitris Korobilis & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2020. "Machine Learning Econometrics: Bayesian algorithms and methods," Working Papers 2020_09, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Approximate Bayesian inference; intractable Bayesian problems; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian synthetic likelihood; variational Bayes; integrated nested Laplace approximation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2021-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Professor Xibin Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dxmonau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.