Emerging Countries Sovereign Rating Adjustment using Market Information: Impact on Financial Institution Investment Decisions
AbstractAssets, debts and other financial products issued by emerging countries are usually considered more speculative than those issued by developed economies. Therefore, relying on traditional rating agencies to invest in these countries is problematic as the information used to assess the economic and market condition in these economies is quickly outdated. Consequently, both the investment opportunities and the necessity to clear particular positions may be missed, respectively resulting in potential significant costs of opportunity or losses. Therefore, an approach taking into account the latest information displayed by financial markets may enable us bypassing the traditional limits. As a result, this chapter proposes a creditworthiness evaluation methodology based on adjusting ratings obtained from macroeconomic fundamentals (GDP growth rate, inflation, external debts, etc.) and financial market movements (bonds, equity volume, volatility, etc). In the first step, a general panel model is applied on country-specific information to generate fundamental ratings. In the second step, applying a multi-factor model to market indicators and breaking down long-term sovereign bond yields into different risk premia, market implied ratings are obtained. Finally, the rating to be considered (denoted “?-Rating”) for investment purposes is a combination of fundamental ratings and market implied ratings carrying out an adapted Bühlmann-Straub method (Credibility Theory). Then, emerging countries “?-Rating” will be compared to those obtained from developed countries and discussed against financial institutions risk appetite.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 13034.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
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Credit risk; rating; Panel model; multi-factor regression; credibility theory.;
Other versions of this item:
- Dominique Guegan & Bertrand Hassani & Xin Zhao, 2013. "Emerging Countries Sovereign Rating Adjustment using Market Information: Impact on Financial Institutions Investment Decisions," UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00820839, HAL.
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-05-11 (All new papers)
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