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Earnings Growth versus Measures of Income and Education for Predicting Mortality

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  • Harriet Orcutt Duleep

    (Research Professor of Public Policy, Thomas Jefferson Program in Public Policy, The College of William & Mary)

  • David Jaeger

    (Professor of Economics, The Graduate Center, City University of New York)

Abstract

This paper begins an exploration to determine whether earnings growth, as a measure of the propensity to invest in human capital, is a valuable variable for predicting mortality. To insure its robustness and general applicability to ongoing Social Security models, the usefulness of earnings growth as a predictor of mortality will be explored in multiple time periods. This paper begins that process by reporting preliminary results for an early time period using the 1973 CPS-SSA-IRS Exact Match file. In addition to presenting preliminary results, the paper also describes how data challenges associated with the pre-1978 administrative record data on earnings and mortality are met.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp257.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp257

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  1. James E Duggan & Robert Gillingham & John S Greenlees, 2008. "Mortality and Lifetime Income: Evidence from U.S. Social Security Records," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 566-594, December.
  2. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1999. "Mortality, education, income and inequality among American cohorts," Working Papers 279, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing..
  3. Panis, C.W.A. & Lillard, L.A., 1996. "Socioeconomic Differentials in the Returns to Social Security," Papers 96-05, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
  4. Ken Smith & Cathleen Zick, 1994. "Linked lives, dependent demise? Survival analysis of husbands and wives," Demography, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 81-93, February.
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