Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Predictive Densities for Shire Level Wheat Yield in Western Australia

Contents:

Author Info

  • William E Griffiths
  • Lisa S Newton
  • Christopher J O’Donnell

Abstract

Wheat yield in Western Australia (WA) depends critically on rainfall during three periods – germination, growing and flowering. The degree of uncertainty attached to a wheat-yield prediction depends on whether the prediction is made before or after the rainfall in each period has been realised. Bayesian predictive densities that reflect the different levels of uncertainty in wheat-yield predictions made at four different points in time are derived for five shires in Western Australia. The framework used for prediction is a linear regression model with stochastic regressors and inequality restrictions on the coefficients. An algorithm is developed that can be used more generally for obtaining Bayesian predictive densities in linear and nonlinear models with inequality constraints, and with or without stochastic regressors.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-08/1051.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found (http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-08/1051.pdf [301 Moved Permanently]--> http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics/downloads/wpapers-08/1051.pdf). If this is indeed the case, please notify (Marisa Cerantola)
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 1051.

as in new window
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1051

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5289
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Email:
Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian forecasting; inequality restrictions; random regressors.;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-44, April.
  2. Geweke, John, 1986. "Exact Inference in the Inequality Constrained Normal Linear Regression Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 127-41, April.
  3. Coelli, Tim J., 1992. "Forecasting Wheat Production Using Shire Level Data," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146430, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  4. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-35, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. William Griffiths, 2002. "A Gibbs’ Sampler for the Parameters of a Truncated Multivariate Normal Distribution," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 856, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Griffiths, W.E., 2001. "Bayesian Inference in the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Models," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 793, The University of Melbourne.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marisa Cerantola).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.