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Micro Modeling of Retirement Decisions in Germany

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Author Info
Simone Kohnz
Reinhold Schnabel (Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

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Abstract

Early retirement in Germany is very costly and amplifies the burden which the German public pension system has to carry due to population aging. This paper shows that the German pension system provides strong incentives to retire early. The paper provides relatively robust econometric evidence for the strength of incentive effects on old age labor supply, using several specifications of incentive variables. The econometric estimates are used to simulate the individual responses to policy changes. The adjustment factors for early retirement introduced by the 1992 pension reform are estimated to increase the retirement age of men by about 1.5 years. This increase is almost the same as the effect from a shift in the “normal retirement” age from 65 to 67. Introducing (almost) fair adjustments (6% per year of delay) would increase the retirement age by about 2 years and 2 months. The effects are about half the size for women.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 02020.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:02020

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Postal: MEA - Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und Demographischer Wandel, L13, 17, University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim
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Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
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  2. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "A Model under Siege: A Case Study of the German Retirement Insurance System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F24-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sikandar Siddiqui, 1997. "The pension incentive to retire: Empirical evidence for West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 463-486. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1997. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 327-354, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Glenn T. Sueyoshi, 1989. "Social Security and the Determinants of Full and Partial Retirement: A Competing Risks Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Borsch-Supan, A., 1995. "Regional Development, Capital Flows and Trade Policies in an Aging Europe," Papers 11, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
  7. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Axel Borsch-Supan, 1999. "Incentive Effects of Social Security Under an Uncertain Disability Option," NBER Working Papers 7339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 205-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  10. John Rust, 1989. "Behavior of male workers at the end of the life-cycle: an empirical analysis of states and controls," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Social Security and Declining Labor-Force Participation in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 173-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Social security and retirement in germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 97-20, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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  1. Rob Euwals & Daniel J. van Vuuren & Ronald P. Wolthoff, 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-021/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Karsten Hank, 2004. "Effects of Early Life Family Events on Women’s Late Life Labour Market Behaviour: An Analysis of the Relationship between Childbearing and Retirement in Western Germany," MEA discussion paper series 04047, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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