Comparing Seasonal Forecasts of Industrial Production
AbstractThis paper presents an analysis of the effect of bureaucratic corruption on economic growth through a public ?nance transmission channel. At the theoretical level, we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model in which fi?nancial intermediaries make portfolio decisions on behalf of agents, and bureaucrats collect tax revenues on behalf of the government. Corruption takes the form of the embezzlement of public funds, the effect of which is to increase the government's reliance on seigniorage ?nance. This leads to an increase in inflation which, in turn, reduces capital accumulation and growth. At the empirical level, we use data on 82 countries over a 20-year period to test the predictions of our model. Taking proper account of the government's budget constraint, we ?find strong evidence to support these predictions under different estimation strategies. Our results are robust to a wide range of sensitivity tests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 103.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-09-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-09-20 (Central Banking)
- NEP-DGE-2008-09-20 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2008-09-20 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.