IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lbo/lbowps/2011_06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Liquidity Risk Using The Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk Approach: An Application To the UK Banking Sector

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper uses a relatively new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance, but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997-2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Meilin Yan & Maximilian J. B. Hall & Paul Turner, 2011. "Estimating Liquidity Risk Using The Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-at-Risk Approach: An Application To the UK Banking Sector," Discussion Paper Series 2011_06, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Nov 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2011_06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/Yan_Hall_TurnerWP6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niclas Andrén & Håkan Jankensgård & Lars Oxelheim, 2005. "Exposure‐Based Cash‐Flow‐at‐Risk: An Alternative to VaR for Industrial Companies," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 17(3), pages 76-86, June.
    2. Evert Wipplinger, 2007. "Philippe Jorion: Value at Risk – The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(3), pages 397-398, September.
    3. Glyn A. Holton, 2002. "History of Value-at-Risk: 1922-1998," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0207001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gupta, Anurag & Liang, Bing, 2005. "Do hedge funds have enough capital? A value-at-risk approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 219-253, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Voloshyn, Ihor & Voloshyn, Mykyta, 2013. "Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach," MPRA Paper 61562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Voloshyn, Ihor & Voloshyn, Mykyta, 2013. "Risk-adjusted pricing of bank’s assets based on cash flow matching matrix," MPRA Paper 61611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Davide Salvatore Mare & Dieter Gramlich, 2021. "Risk exposures of European cooperative banks: a comparative analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Matthias Nnadi & Vachiraporn Surichamorn & Ranadeva Jayasekera & Yacine Belghitar, 2022. "Empirical analysis of debt maturity, cash holdings and firm investment in developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3345-3372, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agarwal, Vikas & Fung, William H. & Loon, Yee Cheng & Naik, Narayan Y., 2004. "Risk and return in convertible arbitrage: Evidence from the convertible bond market," CFR Working Papers 04-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Songhao Wang & Szu Hui Ng & William Benjamin Haskell, 2022. "A Multilevel Simulation Optimization Approach for Quantile Functions," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 569-585, January.
    4. John Kambhu & Til Schuermann & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Hedge funds, financial intermediation, and systemic risk," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Dec), pages 1-18.
    5. Loriana Pelizzon & Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky, 2008. "Crisis and Hedge Fund Risk," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Danielsson, Jon & Taylor, Ashley & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2005. "Highwaymen or heroes: Should hedge funds be regulated?: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 522-543, October.
    7. Wong, Wing-Keung & Phoon, Kok Fai & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2008. "Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 204-223, June.
    8. Katherine Uylangco & Siqiwen Li, 2016. "An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(4), pages 699-718, November.
    9. Abha Naik & Esra Yeniaras & Gerhard Hellstern & Grishma Prasad & Sanjay Kumar Lalta Prasad Vishwakarma, 2023. "From Portfolio Optimization to Quantum Blockchain and Security: A Systematic Review of Quantum Computing in Finance," Papers 2307.01155, arXiv.org.
    10. Douglas Cumming & Na Dai, 2010. "A Law and Finance Analysis of Hedge Funds," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 997-1026, September.
    11. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "To VaR, or Not to VaR, That is the Question," Papers 2101.08559, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    12. Khraisha, Tamer, 2020. "Complex economic problems and fitness landscapes: Assessment and methodological perspectives," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 390-407.
    13. Mustafa Onur Caglayan & Sevan Ulutas, 2014. "Emerging Market Exposures and the Predictability of Hedge Fund Returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 149-180, March.
    14. Mei-Ling Tang & Trung K. Do, 2019. "In search of robust methods for multi-currency portfolio construction by value at risk," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(1), pages 107-126, March.
    15. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "First-passage probability, jump models, and intra-horizon risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 20-40, January.
    16. Friberg, Richard, 2019. "All the bottles in one basket? Diversification and product portfolio composition," CEPR Discussion Papers 14119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Dynamic risk exposures in hedge funds," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3517-3532.
    18. Ying Li & Hossein Kazemi, 2007. "Conditional Properties of Hedge Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(2), pages 211-238, March.
    19. Bárbara Ruth Trejo Becerril & Alberto Gallegos David, 2021. "Estimación del Riesgo de Mercado utilizando el VaR y la Beta del CAPM," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(2), pages 1-26, Abril - J.
    20. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Value-at-risk and the cross section of emerging market hedge fund returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity risk; Exposure-based CFaR; Risk Management; Funding Pressure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2011_06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Huw Edwards (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/delbouk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.