IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v19y2014i3p225-238.html

Estimating Liquidity Risk Using The Exposure‐Based Cash‐Flow‐At‐Risk Approach: An Application To The Uk Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Meilan Yan
  • Maximilian J. B. Hall
  • Paul Turner

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper uses a relatively new quantitative model for estimating UK banks' liquidity risk. The model is called the exposure‐based cash‐flow‐at‐risk (CFaR) model, which not only measures a bank's liquidity risk tolerance but also helps to improve liquidity risk management through the provision of additional risk exposure information. Using data for the period 1997–2010, we provide evidence that there is variable funding pressure across the UK banking industry, which is forecasted to be slightly illiquid with a small amount of expected cash outflow (i.e. £0.06 billion) in 2011. In our sample of the six biggest UK banks, only the HSBC maintains positive CFaR with 95% confidence, which means that there is only a 5% chance that HSBC's cash flow will drop below £0.67 billion by the end of 2011. RBS is expected to face the largest liquidity risk with a 5% chance that the bank will face a cash outflow that year in excess of £40.29 billion. Our estimates also suggest Lloyds TSB's cash flow is the most volatile of the six biggest UK banks, because it has the biggest deviation between its downside cash flow (i.e. CFaR) and expected cash flow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Meilan Yan & Maximilian J. B. Hall & Paul Turner, 2014. "Estimating Liquidity Risk Using The Exposure‐Based Cash‐Flow‐At‐Risk Approach: An Application To The Uk Banking Sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 225-238, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:19:y:2014:i:3:p:225-238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davide Salvatore Mare & Dieter Gramlich, 2021. "Risk exposures of European cooperative banks: a comparative analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Matthias Nnadi & Vachiraporn Surichamorn & Ranadeva Jayasekera & Yacine Belghitar, 2022. "Empirical analysis of debt maturity, cash holdings and firm investment in developing economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3345-3372, July.
    3. Voloshyn, Ihor & Voloshyn, Mykyta, 2013. "Integrated risk management in a commercial market-maker bank using the 'cash flow at risk' approach," MPRA Paper 61562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Voloshyn, Ihor & Voloshyn, Mykyta, 2013. "Risk-adjusted pricing of bank’s assets based on cash flow matching matrix," MPRA Paper 61611, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:19:y:2014:i:3:p:225-238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.