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High Inflation, Hyperinflation and Explosive Roots. The Case of Yugoslavia

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Author Info
Katarina Juselius (University of Copenhagen Institute of Economics)
Zorica Mladenovic (University of Belgrade)

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Abstract

The focus is on 'explosive root VAR' modelling of money, prices, wages, and exchange rates applied to the Yugoslav high inflation/hyperinflation transition period from a centrally planned economy to a more market oriented economy. The I(2) model, which has previously been used to estimate the Cagan model for hyperinflation, is shown to yield incorrect inference when there are explosive roots in the data. The paper develops an econometric framework for the empirical analysis of hyperinflationary episodes and illustrates the importance of exploiting the system dynamics of all the variables in the system for a full understanding of the hyperinflationary mechanisms. The empirical results suggest that excessive nominal wage claims, inflationary expectations and the rate of currency depreciation were the main causes to the Yugoslav hyperinflation rather than the financing of government debt by money printing.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 02-23.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0223

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Related research
Keywords: explosive roots; hyperinflation; polynomial cointegration; transition economies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. Juselius, Katarina, 1999. "Models and Relations in Economics and Econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-90, July.
    Other versions:
  4. Nielsen, Bent, 2001. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Unit Root Tests of Unstable Autoregressive Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 211-19, January.
  5. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Katarina Juselius, 2004. "Inflation, Money Growth, and I(2) Analysis," Discussion Papers 04-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ahlgren, Niklas & Nyblom, Jukka, 2005. "Tests Against Stationary and Explosive Alternatives in Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 511, Hanken School of Economics.
  3. Mª Jose Gutierrez & Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 200227, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bent Nielsen, 2005. "Analysis of co-explosive processes," Economics Papers 2005-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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