Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Colombian Purchasing Power Parity Analysed Using A Framework of Multivariate Cointegration

Contents:

Author Info

  • Peter Rowland

    ()

  • Hugo Oliveros
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper tests for purchasing power parity (PPP) between Colombia and its main trading partners using the Johansen framework of multivariate cointegration. The tests shows that PPP does not hold in the strong sense, but a clear purchasing power relationship is, nevertheless, shown to exist. The model is, furthermore, shown to have significant forecasting power. It outperforms a random walk in out-of-sample forecasting on the 12 and 24-month horizon but not on the 3 and 6-month horizon.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra252.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002150.

    as in new window
    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 31 Aug 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002150

    Contact details of provider:

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics and the Role of Feedback Traders," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 63-68, May.
    2. Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
    3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
    4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    5. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    6. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    8. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, . "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
    11. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
    12. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
    13. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-33, October.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    16. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    17. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Peter Rowland, . "Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk a Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate: A Random Walk With A Variable Drift," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 002736, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:002150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.