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True versus spurious state dependence in firm performance: the case of West German exports

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Author Info
Ulrich Kaiser (University of Southern Denmark at Odense)
Hans Christian Kongsted (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the persistence of firms’ exporting behavior in a panel of West German manufacturing firms. Dynamic binary choice models allow us to distinguish between true and spurious state dependence in firm performance. Using random effects models as well as a recent fixed effect approach which imposes few restrictions on unobservables, we find robust evidence of state dependence in the current export status of firms. Unobserved permanent firm heterogeneity (“spurious state dependence”) is found to be less important than suggested by earlier studies. The existence of true state dependence in exports has direct economic policy implications: if policy successfully turns non-exporters into exporters, the effect is likely to be lasting.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics in its series CAM Working Papers with number 2004-04.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuieca:2004_04

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Related research
Keywords: state dependence; export activity; dynamic binary choice models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior

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  1. Anna Christina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, . "Duration Dependence and Timevarying Variables in Discrete Time Duration Models," Economics Working Papers 2002-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
  3. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Almus, Matthias & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2003. "The Effects of Public R&D Subsidies on Firms' Innovation Activities: The Case of Eastern Germany," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 226-36, April.
  5. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Joachim Wagner, 2003. "Unobserved firm heterogeneity and the size-exports nexus: Evidence from German panel data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 161-172, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Nguyen Van P. & Laisney F. & Kaiser U., 2004. "The Performance of German Firms in the Business-Related Service Sector: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 274-295, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kaiser, Ulrich, 2002. "An empirical test of models explaining research expenditures and research cooperation: evidence for the German service sector," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 747-774, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peters, Bettina, 2005. "Persistence of Innovation: Stylised Facts and Panel Data Evidence," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-81, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Fryges, Helmut, 2006. "Hidden champions - how young and small technology-oriented firms can attain high export-sales ratios," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-45, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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