True versus spurious state dependence in firm performance: the case of West German exports
AbstractThis paper analyzes the persistence of firms’ exporting behavior in a panel of West German manufacturing firms. Dynamic binary choice models allow us to distinguish between true and spurious state dependence in firm performance. Using random effects models as well as a recent fixed effect approach which imposes few restrictions on unobservables, we find robust evidence of state dependence in the current export status of firms. Unobserved permanent firm heterogeneity (“spurious state dependence”) is found to be less important than suggested by earlier studies. The existence of true state dependence in exports has direct economic policy implications: if policy successfully turns non-exporters into exporters, the effect is likely to be lasting.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics in its series CAM Working Papers with number 2004-04.
Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen K., Denmark
Phone: (45) 35 32 30 74
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk/CAM/
More information through EDIRC
state dependence; export activity; dynamic binary choice models;
Other versions of this item:
- Kaiser, Ulrich & Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2004. "True Versus Spurious State Dependence in Firm Performance: The Case of West German Exports," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-81, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anna Cristina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, 2002.
"Duration dependence and time varying variables in discrete time duration models,"
10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002
D6-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Anna Christina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, . "Duration Dependence and Timevarying Variables in Discrete Time Duration Models," Economics Working Papers 2002-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- J Bradford Jensen & Andrew B Bernard, 2001.
"Why Some Firms Export,"
01-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Almus, M & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2003.
"The effects of public R&D subsidies on firms' innovation activities: The case of Eastern Germany,"
Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
urn:hdl:123456789/98222, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Almus, Matthias & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2003. "The Effects of Public R&D Subsidies on Firms' Innovation Activities: The Case of Eastern Germany," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 226-36, April.
- Almus, Matthias & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2001. "The effects of public R&D subsidies on firms' innovation activities: the case of Eastern Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-10, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
- Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
- Bettina Peters, 2005.
"Persistence of Innovation: Stylised Facts and Panel Data Evidence,"
Development and Comp Systems
- Bettina Peters, 2009. "Persistence of innovation: stylised facts and panel data evidence," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 226-243, April.
- Peters, Bettina, 2005. "Persistence of Innovation: Stylised Facts and Panel Data Evidence," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-81, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Bettina Peters, 2006. "Persistence of Innovation Stylised Facts and Panel Data Evidence," DRUID Working Papers 06-30, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
- Bussière, Matthieu, 2007.
"Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the “early” warning signals?,"
Working Paper Series
0713, European Central Bank.
- Matthieu Bussi�re, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
- Fryges, Helmut, 2006. "Hidden champions - how young and small technology-oriented firms can attain high export-sales ratios," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-45, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Mangelsdorf, Stefan, 2010.
"Die Transformation des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Berlin/Brandenburg unter Berücksichtigung der Exporte : eine empirische Analyse mit amtlichen Mikrodaten
[The transition of the manufacturing indu," MPRA Paper 39304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Fischer).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.