Unsolved Econometric Problems In Nonlinearity, Chaos, And Bifurcation
AbstractIn an attempt to resolve the controversies that exist within the field of economics regarding nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation, we investigate the relevancy to these controversies of a controlled competition among nonparametric econometric tests for nonlinearity and chaos, and we also report on our results with experiments using parametric macroeconomic models to investigate the implications of bifurcation for macroeconomic policy. These experiments are part of an ongoing research project. What we find so far is that existing views on nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation in economics are based upon oversimplified views that currently neither can be confirmed nor contradicted with empirical results that are now available. Since these issues are deep and difficult, considerably more research is needed before any serious conclusions on the subject can be stated with confidence. This fact is particularly true regarding the relevancy of nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation for macroeconomic stabilization policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201231.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision: Sep 2012
Other versions of this item:
- William A. Barnett & Yijun He, 2000. "Unsolved Econometric Problems in Nonlinearity, Chaos, and Bifurcation," Macroeconomics 0004021, EconWPA.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-09 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 1997.
"Chaos in East European black market exchange rates,"
Research in Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 359-385, December.
- Serletis, A. & Gogas, P., 1997. "Chaos in East European Black-Market Exchange Rates," Papers 9708, Calgary - Department of Economics.
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