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Unsolved Econometric Problems In Nonlinearity, Chaos, And Bifurcation

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  • William Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Yijun He

    (Department of Economics, Washington State University)

Abstract

In an attempt to resolve the controversies that exist within the field of economics regarding nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation, we investigate the relevancy to these controversies of a controlled competition among nonparametric econometric tests for nonlinearity and chaos, and we also report on our results with experiments using parametric macroeconomic models to investigate the implications of bifurcation for macroeconomic policy. These experiments are part of an ongoing research project. What we find so far is that existing views on nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation in economics are based upon oversimplified views that currently neither can be confirmed nor contradicted with empirical results that are now available. Since these issues are deep and difficult, considerably more research is needed before any serious conclusions on the subject can be stated with confidence. This fact is particularly true regarding the relevancy of nonlinearity, chaos, and bifurcation for macroeconomic stabilization policy.

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File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2009Papers/201231.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201231.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision: Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201231

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  1. Serletis, A. & Gogas, P., 1997. "Chaos in East European Black-Market Exchange Rates," Papers 9708, Calgary - Department of Economics.
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