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The trade impact of U.S.-China conflict in Southeast Asia

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  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effects of the U.S.-China tariff war on exports to the U.S. from Southeast Asian countries and these countries’ imports from China. To do that, we estimate various equatio ns for monthly trade during the period from January 2018 to December 2019. As a result, we found t hat some Southeast Asian countries increased their exports to the U.S. At the same time, some Southea st Asian countries also increased their imports from China. Most countries experienced either an increas e in exports to the U.S. or an increase in imports from China, but not both. Exceptions include Cambo dia and Vietnam, which had increases in both categories. In particular, we found some suggestive eviden ce that certain products made in China are re-exported to the U.S. through these countries to sidestep the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa,Kazunobu, 2022. "The trade impact of U.S.-China conflict in Southeast Asia," IDE Discussion Papers 873, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper873
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN|US-China trade war|Tariffs;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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