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Sources of fluctuations in parallel exchange rates and policy reform in Myanmar

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  • Kubo, Koji

Abstract

Myanmar maintained a multiple exchange rate system, and the parallel market exchange rate was left untamed. In the last two decades, the Myanmar kyat exchange rate of the parallel market has exhibited the sharpest fluctuations among Southeast Asian currencies in real terms. Since the move to a managed float regime in April 2012, the question arises of whether exchange rate policies will be effective in stabilizing the real exchange rate. This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate using Blanchard and Quah’s (1989) structural vector autoregression model. As nominal shocks can be created by exchange rate policies, a persistent impact of a nominal shock implies more room for exchange rate policies. Decomposition of the fluctuations into nominal and real shocks indicates that the impact of nominal shocks is small and quickly diminishes, implying that complementary sterilization is necessary for effective foreign exchange market interventions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 388.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 388. 2013.2
Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper388

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Keywords: Myanmar; Foreign exchange; Real and nominal effective exchange rates; Structural VAR;

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  1. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2009. "What Explains Real and Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations?: Evidence from SVAR Analysis for India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2803-2815.
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  3. Sean TURNELL, 2011. "Fundamentals of Myanmar's Macroeconomy: A Political Economy Perspective," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 6(1), pages 136-153, 06.
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  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. In-Bong Ha & Bong-Soo Lee & Chongcheul Cheong, 2007. "What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997? *: Weak Fundamentals or Self-fulfilling Expectations ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 195-206, 06.
  8. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1997. "Accounting for real and nominal exchange rate movements in the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 233-254, April.
  9. Masahiro Hori & Yu Ching Wong, 2013. "Costs of Myanmar's multiple exchange-rate regime," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 209-233, March.
  10. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-39, August.
  11. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
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