IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jau/wpaper/2016-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loans requirements: An agent based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bulent Ozel

    (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Reynold Christian Nathanael

    (DIME-CINEF, Università di Genova, Italy)

  • Marco Raberto

    (DIME-CINEF, Università di Genova, Italy)

  • Andrea Teglio

    (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

  • Silvano Cincotti

    (DIME-CINEF, Università di Genova, Italy)

Abstract

This paper presents an enhancement of the Eurace agent-based model by designing a housing market with a related mortgage lending device. The presence of the housing market has some important macroeconomic implications, mainly given by the additional amount of endogenous money injected into the economy through the new mortgage device. This additional money generally helps to increase and stabilize aggregated demand, thus improving the main economic indicators. However, if the mortgage lending regulation is relaxed too much, by raising the debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI), then the additional supply of mortgages doesn’t increase the macroeconomic performance any more, and undermines the stability of the economic system. Following some recent discussion, a stock control regulation that targets households net wealth (a stock), instead of income (a flow), is designed and analyzed. Results show that stock control regulation can be effectively combined with DSTI in order to increase the stability of the housing market and of the whole economy. Moreover, stock control regulation exhibits the interesting property to directly affect mortgage distribution among households.

Suggested Citation

  • Bulent Ozel & Reynold Christian Nathanael & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2016. "Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loans requirements: An agent based approach," Working Papers 2016/05, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Ozel_et_al_05_2016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2012. "The Impact Of Banks' Capital Adequacy Regulation On The Economic System: An Agent-Based Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-27.
    2. Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
    3. Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert & Roman Sustek, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 18432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Dubecq, S. & Ghattassi, I., 2009. "Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Housing Prices," Working papers 264, Banque de France.
    5. Gallegati Mauro & Greenwald Bruce & Richiardi Matteo G & Stiglitz Joseph E., 2008. "The Asymmetric Effect of Diffusion Processes: Risk Sharing and Contagion," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Thorir Bjarnason & Einar Jón Erlingsson & Bulent Ozel & Hlynur Stefánsson & Jón Thor Sturluson & Marco Raberto, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of varied mortgage instruments studied using agent-based model simulations," Working Papers 2017/10, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    7. Deaton, Angus, 1992. " Household Saving in LDCs: Credit Markets, Insurance and Welfare," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 253-273.
    8. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    9. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2015. "Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 157-187.
    10. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April.
    11. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
    12. Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2008. "Prospect Theory Behavioral Assumptions in an Artificial Financial Economy," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Klaus Schredelseker & Florian Hauser (ed.), Complexity and Artificial Markets, chapter 5, pages 55-66, Springer.
    13. Erlingsson, Einar Jon & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano & Stefansson, Hlynur & Sturlusson, Jon Thor & Raberto, Marco, 2014. "Housing market bubbles and business cycles in an agent-based credit economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-42.
    14. Dawid Herbert & Gemkow Simon & Harting Philipp & Kabus Kordian & Wersching Klaus & Neugart Michael, 2008. "Skills, Innovation, and Growth: An Agent-Based Policy Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 251-275, April.
    15. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2012. "Debt, deleveraging and business cycles: An agent-based perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-49.
    17. Shaikh, Anwar, 1974. "Laws of Production and Laws of Algebra: The Humbug Production Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 56(1), pages 115-120, February.
    18. Césaire Meh & Yaz Terajima & David Xiao Chen & Thomas J. Carter, 2009. "Household Debt, Assets, and Income in Canada: A Microdata Study," Discussion Papers 09-7, Bank of Canada.
    19. Matteo G. Richiardi, 2017. "The Future of Agent-Based Modeling," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 271-287, March.
    20. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    21. Anderson, Gareth & Bunn, Philip & Pugh, Alice & Uluc, Arzu, 2014. "The potential impact of higher interest rates on the household sector: evidence from the 2014 NMG Consulting survey," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(4), pages 419-433.
    22. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    23. Bernard Hogetts & Andrew Yeh & James Twaddle & Mike Frith, 2005. "Basel II: A new capital framework," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 68, September.
    24. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    25. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-197, September.
    26. Jihad Dagher & Mr. Ning Fu, 2011. "What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust: Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/215, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Baptista, Rafa & Farmer, J. Doyne & Hinterschweiger, Marc & Low, Katie & Tang, Daniel & Uluc, Arzu, 2016. "Macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market," Bank of England working papers 619, Bank of England.
    28. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    29. Jihad Dagher & Ning Fu, 2017. "What Fuels the Boom Drives the Bust: Regulation and the Mortgage Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(602), pages 996-1024, June.
    30. Kydland, Finn & Rupert, Peter & Sustek, Roman, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7bn5k73m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    31. Pietro Catte & Nathalie Girouard & Robert Price & Christophe André, 2005. "The Contribution of Housing Markets to Cyclical Resilience," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2004(1), pages 125-156.
    32. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    33. Labini, Paolo Sylos, 1995. "Why the interpretation of the Cobb-Douglas production function must be radically changed," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 485-504, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Agent-Based Macroeconomics and Classical Political Economy: Some Italian Roots," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 261-283, November.
    2. Marcello Nieddu & Filippo Bertani & Linda Ponta, 2022. "The sustainability transition and the digital transformation: two challenges for agent-based macroeconomic models," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 193-226, April.
    3. Petrović, Marko & Ozel, Bulent & Teglio, Andrea & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? An agent-based setup for a trading and monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and credit market regulation in the Eurace model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 429-465, March.
    5. Adrian Carro & Marc Hinterschweiger & Arzu Uluc & J Doyne Farmer, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects and spillovers of macroprudential policy in an agent-based model of the UK housing market," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 386-432.
    6. Mérő, Bence & Borsos, András & Hosszú, Zsuzsanna & Oláh, Zsolt & Vágó, Nikolett, 2023. "A high-resolution, data-driven agent-based model of the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2018. "Securitization and business cycle: an agent-based perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1091-1121.
    8. Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2021. "The complexity of the intangible digital economy: an agent-based model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 527-540.
    9. Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2018. "An Agent-based Stock-flow Consistent Model of the Sustainable Transition in the Energy Sector," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 274-300.
    10. Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "An economy under the digital transformation," MPRA Paper 94205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Filippo Bertani & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio, 2020. "The productivity and unemployment effects of the digital transformation: an empirical and modelling assessment," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 329-355, November.
    12. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2016. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and monetary policies in the Eurace model," Working Papers 2016/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    13. Mérő, Bence & Vágó, Nikolett, 2018. "Keresletvezérelt lakáspiaci modell a lakáshitelezést szabályozó makro prudenciális eszközök tanulmányozására [A demand-led model of the housing market for studying the macro-prudential means of reg," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1115-1153.
    14. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Eliana Lauretta & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2020. "Systemic financial risk indicators and securitised assets: an agent-based framework," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(1), pages 9-47, January.
    15. Bernardo Alves Furtado, 2022. "PolicySpace2: Modeling Markets and Endogenous Public Policies," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 25(1), pages 1-8.
    16. Ruben Tarne & Dirk Bezemer & Thomas Theobald, 2021. "The Effect of borrower-specific Loan-to-Value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility," IMK Working Paper 212-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    17. Nieddu, Marcello & Bertani, Filippo & Ponta, Linda, 2021. "Sustainability transition and digital trasformation: an agent-based perspective," MPRA Paper 106943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tarne, Ruben & Bezemer, Dirk & Theobald, Thomas, 2022. "The effect of borrower-specific loan-to-value policies on household debt, wealth inequality and consumption volatility: An agent-based analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teglio, Andrea & Mazzocchetti, Andrea & Ponta, Linda & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2019. "Budgetary rigour with stimulus in lean times: Policy advices from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 59-83.
    2. Andrea Mazzocchetti & Marco Raberto & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2018. "Securitization and business cycle: an agent-based perspective," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 1091-1121.
    3. Petrović, Marko & Ozel, Bulent & Teglio, Andrea & Raberto, Marco & Cincotti, Silvano, 2020. "Should I stay or should I go? An agent-based setup for a trading and monetary union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Cincotti, Silvano & Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea, 2010. "Credit money and macroeconomic instability in the agent-based model and simulator Eurace," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-32.
    5. Erlingsson, Einar Jon & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano & Stefansson, Hlynur & Sturlusson, Jon Thor & Raberto, Marco, 2014. "Housing market bubbles and business cycles in an agent-based credit economy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-42.
    6. Raberto, Marco & Teglio, Andrea & Cincotti, Silvano, 2012. "Debt, deleveraging and business cycles: An agent-based perspective," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-49.
    7. Marko Petrovic & Bulent Ozel & Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2017. "Eurace Open: An agent-based multi-country model," Working Papers 2017/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    8. Kirill S. Glavatskiy & Mikhail Prokopenko & Adrian Carro & Paul Ormerod & Michael Harré, 2021. "Explaining herding and volatility in the cyclical price dynamics of urban housing markets using a large-scale agent-based model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2017. "Taming macroeconomic instability: Monetary and macro-prudential policy interactions in an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 117-140.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bnglqth5987gaq6dhju3psjn3 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2019. "Is the market really a good teacher?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 299-335, March.
    12. Li, Boyao, 2017. "The impact of the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio on macroeconomic stability: An agent-based approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2016. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and monetary policies in the Eurace model," Working Papers 2016/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    14. Marco Raberto & Bulent Ozel & Linda Ponta & Andrea Teglio & Silvano Cincotti, 2019. "From financial instability to green finance: the role of banking and credit market regulation in the Eurace model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 429-465, March.
    15. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    16. Andrea Teglio & Marco Raberto & Silvano Cincotti, 2012. "The Impact Of Banks' Capital Adequacy Regulation On The Economic System: An Agent-Based Approach," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-27.
    17. Bence Mérõ, 2019. "Novel Modelling of the Operation of the Financial Intermediary System – Agent-based Macro Models," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(3), pages 83-113.
    18. Kirill S. Glavatskiy & Mikhail Prokopenko & Adrian Carro & Paul Ormerod & Michael Harre, 2020. "Explaining herding and volatility in the cyclical price dynamics of urban housing markets using a large scale agent-based model," Papers 2004.07571, arXiv.org.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1j4v8sl4fc9a49ankmnhv6bb6a is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hafner, Sarah & Anger-Kraavi, Annela & Monasterolo, Irene & Jones, Aled, 2020. "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5hussro0tc951q0jqpu8quliqu is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 305-332, October.
    23. Gennaro Zezza & Michalis Nikiforos, 2017. "Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey," EcoMod2017 10762, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computational techniques; simulation modeling; business fluctuations; cycles; money supply; credit; money multipliers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: María Aurora Garcia Gallego (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ueujies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.