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Analyzing the Anticipation of Treatments Using Data on Notification Dates

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Author Info

  • Crépon, Bruno

    ()
    (CREST)

  • Ferracci, Marc

    ()
    (CREST-INSEE)

  • Jolivet, Grégory

    ()
    (University of Bristol)

  • van den Berg, Gerard J.

    ()
    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract

When treatments may occur at different points in time, most evaluation methods assume – implicitly or explicitly – that all the information used by subjects about the occurrence of a future treatment is available to the researcher. This is often called the “no anticipation” assumption. In reality, subjects may receive private signals about the date when a treatment may start. We provide a methodological and empirical analysis of this issue in a setting where the outcome of interest as well as the moment of information arrival (notification) and the start of the treatment can all be characterized by duration variables. Building on the "Timing of Events" approach, we show that the causal effects of notification and of the treatment on the outcome are identified. We estimate the model on an administrative data set of unemployed workers in France which provides the date when job seekers receive information from caseworkers about their future treatment status. We find that notification has a significant and positive effect on unemployment duration. This result violates the standard "no anticipation" assumption and rules out a "threat effect" of training programs in France.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 5265.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5265

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Related research

Keywords: evaluation of labor market programs; training; duration model; timing of events; anticipation;

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  1. Gerard J. van den Berg & Annette H. Bergemann & Marco Caliendo, 2009. "The Effect of Active Labor Market Programs on Not-Yet Treated Unemployed Individuals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 606-616, 04-05.
  2. Giacomo De Giorgi, 2005. "Long-term effects of a mandatory multistage program: the New Deal for young people in the UK," IFS Working Papers W05/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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Cited by:
  1. Haan, Peter & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2007. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Involuntary Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 2888, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Richard Blundell & Marco Francesconi & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011. "Anatomy of Welfare Reform Evaluation:Announcement and Implementation Effects," Economics Discussion Papers 698, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  3. Caliendo, Marco & Künn, Steffen & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2012. "Marginal Employment, Unemployment Duration and Job Match Quality," IZA Discussion Papers 6499, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Hullegie, P.G.J., 2012. "Essays on health and labor economics," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5637283, Tilburg University.

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