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Climbing the Drug Staircase: A Bayesian Analysis of the Initiation of Hard Drug Use

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Author Info

  • Bretteville-Jensen, Anne Line

    ()
    (Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research (SIRUS))

  • Jacobi, Liana

    ()
    (University of Melbourne)

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    Abstract

    Empirical studies have found that cannabis commonly precedes consumption of drugs like amphetamine, ecstasy, cocaine and heroin. As a result a causal linkage between cannabis and subsequent hard drug use has been hypothesized. Despite mixed empirical evidence and a limited understanding of possible transmission mechanisms, the causal gateway hypothesis has been influential in formulating a strict drug policy in many western countries. Individual differences in proneness and accessibility, however, provide alternative, non-causal explanations for the observed "staircase" pattern and yield potentially different policy implications. We propose a Bayesian estimation and predictive framework to analyze the effects and relative importance of previous cannabis use, proneness and accessibility factors on hard drug initiation and to explore potential policy implications, using data from a unique recent survey of young adults in Norway. Motivated by the gateway transmission channels proposed in the literature, our model allows for a constant and a heterogeneous effect of previous cannabis use on hard drug initiation and, also, a more flexible correlation pattern for the unobservables. We find that proneness, accessibility and previous cannabis use contribute to the observed higher drug use pattern among cannabis users. The latter has the largest effect and is driven by various transmission channels.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3879.

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    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3879

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    Related research

    Keywords: accessibility; Bayesian prior-posterior analysis; Bayesian predictive analysis; cannabis gateway; cannabis use; hard drug use; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; policy; proneness;

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    References

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    1. Chib, Siddhartha & Jacobi, Liana, 2007. "Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 781-801, October.
    2. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    3. Anne Line Bretteville-Jensen & Hans Olav Melberg & Andrew M Jones, 2005. "Sequential patterns of drug use initiation – can we believe in the gateway theory?," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York 05/09, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Jeffrey DeSimone, 1998. "Is Marijuana a Gateway Drug?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 149-164, Spring.
    5. van Ours, Jan C. & Williams, Jenny, 2007. "Cannabis prices and dynamics of cannabis use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 578-596, May.
    6. Stephen Pudney, 2003. "The Road to Ruin? Sequences of Initiation to Drugs and Crime in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages C182-C198, March.
    7. Anne Line Bretteville-Jensen & Erik Biørn, 2004. "Do prices count? A micro-econometric study of illicit drug consumption based on self-reported data," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 673-695, 09.
    8. Chib, Siddhartha, 2007. "Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of potential outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 401-412, October.
    9. Hans Melberg & Andrew Jones & Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2010. "Is cannabis a gateway to hard drugs?," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 583-603, June.
    10. van Ours, Jan C., 2003. "Is cannabis a stepping-stone for cocaine?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 539-554, July.
    11. Beenstock, Michael & Rahav, Giora, 2002. "Testing Gateway Theory: do cigarette prices affect illicit drug use?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 679-698, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Waddell, G.R., 2012. "Adolescent drug use and the deterrent effect of school-imposed penalties," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 961-969.

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