IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/abo/neswpt/w0219.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenz Kueng

    (Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management, and National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Evgeny Yakovlev

    (New Economic School)

Abstract

We use two quasi-natural experiments in the 1980s and 1990s to identify how public policies affect important long-run outcomes by changing preferences. Large but short-lived shocks to product availability in Russia shifted young consumers' long-run preferences from hard to light alcohol. The resulting large cohort differences in current alcohol consumption shares decades after the interventions ended explain about 60% of the recent decrease in male mortality based on both micro-level and aggregate estimates. Mortality will continue to decrease by another 23% over the next twenty years based on our analysis. Program impact evaluations that focus only on contemporaneous effects can therefore severely underestimate the total effect of such public policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenz Kueng & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2016. "Long-Run Effects of Public Policies: Endogenous Alcohol Preferences and Life Expectancy in Russia," Working Papers w0219, New Economic School (NES).
    • Handle: RePEc:abo:neswpt:w0219
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nes.ru/files/Preprints-resh/WP219.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angrist, Joshua D., 2014. "The perils of peer effects," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 98-108.
    2. David Atkin, 2016. "The Caloric Costs of Culture: Evidence from Indian Migrants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1144-1181, April.
    3. Evgeny Yakovlev, 2012. "Peers and Alcohol: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0182, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    4. Jenny Williams, 2005. "Habit formation and college students' demand for alcohol," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 119-134, February.
    5. Pollak, Robert A, 1978. "Endogenous Tastes in Demand and Welfare Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 374-379, May.
    6. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Jean-Pierre H. Dube & Matthew Gentzkow, 2012. "The Evolution of Brand Preferences: Evidence from Consumer Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2472-2508, October.
    7. van Ours, Jan C., 2003. "Is cannabis a stepping-stone for cocaine?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 539-554, July.
    8. Badi H. Baltagi & Ingo Geishecker, 2006. "Rational alcohol addiction: evidence from the Russian longitudinal monitoring survey," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 893-914, September.
    9. Elizabeth Brainerd & David M. Cutler, 2005. "Autopsy on an Empire: Understanding Mortality in Russia and the Former Soviet Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 107-130, Winter.
    10. Samuel Bowles, 1998. "Endogenous Preferences: The Cultural Consequences of Markets and Other Economic Institutions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 75-111, March.
    11. Beenstock, Michael & Rahav, Giora, 2002. "Testing Gateway Theory: do cigarette prices affect illicit drug use?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 679-698, July.
    12. John C. Harsanyi, 1953. "Welfare Economics of Variable Tastes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 204-213.
    13. Michael J. Moore & Philip J. Cook, 1995. "Habit and Heterogeneity in the Youthful Demand for Alcohol," NBER Working Papers 5152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Marschak, T A, 1978. "On the Study of Taste Changing Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 386-391, May.
    15. H. Leibenstein, 1950. "Bandwagon, Snob, and Veblen Effects in the Theory of Consumers' Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 64(2), pages 183-207.
    16. Henry J. Aaron, 1994. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Public Policy, Values, and Consciousness," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 3-21, Spring.
    17. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    18. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, March.
    19. Cook, Philip J. & Moore, Michael J., 1999. "Alcohol," Working Papers 156, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    20. A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), 2000. "Handbook of Health Economics," Handbook of Health Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dragone, Davide & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2017. "Non-separable time preferences, novelty consumption and body weight: Theory and evidence from the East German transition to capitalism," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 41-65.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1ej8deo44v9t38bpf73n3rflp8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eve Sihra, 2017. "Consumption, Social Interactions and Preferences," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1ej8deo44v9, Sciences Po.
    3. Bretteville-Jensen Anne L & Melberg Hans O & Jones Andrew M, 2008. "Sequential Patterns of Drug Use Initiation - Can We Believe In the Gateway Theory?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Marco Caliendo & Juliane Hennecke, 2022. "Drinking is different! Examining the role of locus of control for alcohol consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2785-2815, November.
    5. Kenneth Clements & Yihui Lan & Xueyan Zhao, 2010. "The demand for marijuana, tobacco and alcohol: inter-commodity interactions with uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 203-239, August.
    6. Laurence Kranich, 2022. "Affective social policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(2), pages 362-379, April.
    7. Anne Bretteville-Jensen, 2006. "Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 491-516, December.
    8. Dragone, Davide & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2017. "Non-separable time preferences, novelty consumption and body weight: Theory and evidence from the East German transition to capitalism," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 41-65.
    9. Friberg, Richard & Paterson, Robert W. & Richardson, Andrew D., 2011. "Why is there a Home Bias? A Case Study of Wine," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 37-66, January.
    10. Shao-Hsun Keng & Sheng-Jang Sheu, 2013. "The effect of stimulants and their combined use with cigarettes on mortality: the case of betel quid," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(4), pages 677-695, August.
    11. Michael T. French & Ioana Popovici, 2011. "That instrument is lousy! In search of agreement when using instrumental variables estimation in substance use research," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 127-146, February.
    12. Kolosnitsyna, Marina & Sukhanova, Varvara, 2023. "Price elasticities revisited: The effect of price changes caused by taxation on the amount of alcohol consumed," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 28-47.
    13. Herzfeld, Thomas & Huffman, Sonya K. & Rizov, Marian, 2009. "The Dynamics of the Russian Lifestyle During Transition: Changes in Food, Alcohol and Cigarette Consumption," Staff General Research Papers Archive 13116, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Jean-Pierre H. Dube & Matthew Gentzkow, 2012. "The Evolution of Brand Preferences: Evidence from Consumer Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2472-2508, October.
    15. Herzfeld, Thomas & Huffman, Sonya Kostova & Oskam, Arie J. & Rizov, Marian, 2009. "Changes in Food, Alcohol and Cigarettes Consumption during Transition: Evidence from Russia," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49239, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Kelly, Elaine & Rasul, Imran, 2014. "Policing cannabis and drug related hospital admissions: Evidence from administrative records," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 89-114.
    17. Deconinck, Koen & Swinnen, Johan, 2015. "Peer effects and the rise of beer in Russia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 83-96.
    18. Jacobs Martin, 2016. "Accounting for Changing Tastes: Approaches to Explaining Unstable Individual Preferences," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(2), pages 121-183, August.
    19. Marit Hinnosaar & Elaine M. Liu, 2020. "Persistence in alcohol consumption: evidence from migrants," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 620, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    20. Jenny Williams, 2005. "Habit formation and college students' demand for alcohol," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 119-134, February.
    21. Donald S. Kenkel & Robert R. Reed III & Ping Wang, 2002. "Rational Addiction, Peer Externalities and Long Run Effects of Public Policy," NBER Working Papers 9249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run policy effects; endogenous preferences; mortality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abo:neswpt:w0219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vladimir Ivanyukhin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nerasru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.