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Ten Do It Better, Do They? An Empirical Analysis of an Old Football Myth

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  • Caliendo, Marco

    ()
    (University of Potsdam)

  • Radic, Dubravko

    ()
    (University of Wuppertal)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate how the expulsion of a player influences the outcome of a football match. Common sense implies a negative impact for the affected team. However, an old football myth suggests that such an expulsion might also be beneficial since it increases the team spirit as well as the efforts of the affected team. We make use of a unique dataset containing all games played in a World Cup Championship between 1930 and 2002 and follow a twofold econometric strategy: We start with a conditional maximum likelihood estimator which is independent of the relative strength of the teams before we extend this estimator to take the relative strength of the teams and the minute of the expulsion into account. Our results indicate that the scoring intensities of both teams do not differ after the expulsion. Conducting scenario analysis reveals that the impact of a red card depends on the minute of the expulsion and does not have an impact at all if given at the end of the first half or later.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2158.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2158

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Related research

Keywords: Poisson process; (un)conditional likelihood; football; red card effect;

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  1. Dohmen, Thomas, 2005. "Social Pressure Influences Decisions of Individuals: Evidence from the Behavior of Football Referees," IZA Discussion Papers 1595, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Luis Garicano & Ignacio Palacios-Huerta & Canice Prendergast, 2001. "Favoritism Under Social Pressure," Working Papers 2001-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Mario Mechtel & Agnes Bäker & Tobias Brändle & Karin Vetter, 2011. "Red Cards: Not Such Bad News for Penalized Guest Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(6), pages 621-646, December.
  2. Agnes Bäker & Mario Mechtel & Karin Vetter, 2012. "Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(3), pages 224-246, May.
  3. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2007. "The Twelfth Man? Refereeing Bias in English and German Soccer," Working Papers 0707, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.

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