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The Dark, And Independent, Side Of Italy

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Author Info
Maurizio Bovi (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)
Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, new annual data on Italian irregular sector for the period 1980-1991 are reconstructed. These data are compatible with the available 1992-2001 official data. Second, based on this self-consistent “long” sample a time series analysis of the two sides – the dark and the regular - of the Italian GDP is performed. Results from univariate and VAR models seem to suggest that there are no connections (causal relationships, feedbacks, contemporaneous cyclical movements, common stochastic trends) between these two time series. In this sense, we could correctly refer to the Italian black sector as an “independent economy”.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 46.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:46

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Related research
Keywords: Underground Economy Unit Root VAR models.

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion

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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Laura Castellucci & Maurizio Bovi, 1999. "What Do We Know About The Size Of The Underground Economy In Italy Beyond The "Common Wisdom"? Some Empirically Tested Propositions," Departmental Working Papers 120, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2003. "Testing for unit roots with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 75-89, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, . "Shadow Activity and Unemployment in a Depressed Labor Market," Working Papers 177, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. D.K. Bhattacharyya, 2004. "On the Use of the Hidden Economy Estimates," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 118(1_2), pages 169-181, 01. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik H. Enste, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Marcello Signorelli, 1997. "Uncertainty, Flexibility Gap and Labour Demand in the Italian Economy," LABOUR, CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 141-175, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Austan Goolsbee, 1999. "Evidence on the High-Income Laffer Curve from Six Decades of Tax Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1999-2), pages 1-64. [Downloadable!]
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