IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipt/termod/202002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Spatial aggregation bias in wage curve and NAWRU estimation

Author

Abstract

I argue in this paper that the estimation of wage curves and NAWRUs at the country level suffers from spatial aggregation bias. Using European data for the years 2000-2017, I find steeper country level wage curves and higher NAWRUs, compared to estimating at the underlying regional level. The distribution of regional unemployment rates within countries over time is not mean-scaled. Regions with low unemployment rates are the main drivers of changes in aggregate unemployment. The steepness of a log-linear wage curve in regions with low unemployment dominates at the aggregate (country) level, overestimating wage pressure. Lagged wages are important in explaining wage growth, together with unemployment. This suggests that a wage curve fits the data better than the assumption of a NAWRU or long run natural rate of unemployment. With regional wage curves, spatial aggregation bias can produce aggregate data that resembles such a natural rate of unemployment, however.

Suggested Citation

  • Damiaan Persyn, 2020. "Spatial aggregation bias in wage curve and NAWRU estimation," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2020-02, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:termod:202002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC120448
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2018. "Local and spatial cointegration in the wage curve – a spatial panel analysis for german regions," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 38(1), pages 53-75, February.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    3. Robert C. M. Beyer & Frank Smets, 2015. "Editor'S Choice Labour market adjustments and migration in Europe and the United States: how different?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(84), pages 643-682.
    4. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2003. "A practical log-linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 665-678.
    5. Alfonso Arpaia & Aron Kiss & Balazs Palvolgyi & Alessandro Turrini, 2016. "Labour mobility and labour market adjustment in the EU," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Jan Ditzen, 2018. "Estimating dynamic common-correlated effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(3), pages 585-617, September.
    7. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2003. "A practical log-linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 665-678.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. Miquel Clar & Christian Dreger & Raúl Ramos, 2007. "Wage Flexibility and Labour Market Institutions: A Meta‐Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 145-163, May.
    10. Jimeno, Juan F. & Bentolila, Samuel, 1998. "Regional unemployment persistence (Spain, 1976-1994)," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 25-51, March.
    11. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2015. "Common correlated effects estimation of heterogeneous dynamic panel data models with weakly exogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 393-420.
    12. Gaetano Basso & Francesco D’Amuri & Giovanni Peri, 2019. "Immigrants, Labor Market Dynamics and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 528-572, September.
    13. Arthur Lewbel, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(3), pages 635-642.
    14. Smets, Frank & Beyer, Robert C. M., 2015. "Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different?," Working Paper Series 1767, European Central Bank.
    15. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rodseth, Asbjorn, 2003. "Explaining unemployment: some lessons from Nordic wage formation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, February.
    16. Campbell III, Carl M., 2008. "An efficiency wage approach to reconciling the wage curve and the Phillips curve," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1388-1415, December.
    17. Steinar Holden & Ragnar Nymoen, 2002. "Measuring Structural Unemployment: NAWRU Estimates in the Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 87-104, March.
    18. Stoker, Thomas M, 1986. "Simple Tests of Distributional Effects on Macroeconomic Equations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 763-795, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Persyn, Damiaan, 2021. "Aggregation bias in wage rigidity estimation," MPRA Paper 106464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Kwaku Addai & Berna Serener & Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2022. "Asymmetricity in the Effect of Economic and Environmental Factors on Social Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from Eastern European Economies using Dynamic Analysis with CCEMG & D-H Causality Approac," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(3), pages 75-93.
    4. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2004. "Inequality-Driven Growth: Unveiling Aggregation Effects in Growth Equations," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 769, Econometric Society.
    5. Kamalu, Kabiru & Wan Ibrahim, Wan Hakimah, 2022. "The Influence of Institutional Quality on Human Development: Evidence from Developing Countries," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 93-105.
    6. Massimo Anelli & Gaetano Basso & Giuseppe Ippedico & Giovanni Peri, 2019. "Youth Drain Entrepreneurship and Innovation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1240, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Kwaku Addai & Berna Serener & Dervis Kirikkaleli, 2022. "Asymmetricity in the Effect of Economic and Environmental Factors on Social Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from Eastern European Economies using Dynamic Analysis with CCEMG & D-H Causality Approac," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(3), pages 75-92.
    8. Kohler, Wilhelm & Müller, Gernot J. & Wellmann, Susanne, 2023. "Risk sharing in currency unions: The migration channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Gianni Carvelli, 2023. "The long-run effects of government expenditure on private investments: a panel CS-ARDL approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 620-645, September.
    10. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does natural resource rent and consumption interplay worsen Africa's pollution? Heterogeneous panel approach with cross-sectional dependence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Mariam Camarero & Alejandro Muñoz & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "The rise and fall of global financial flows in EU 15: new evidence using dynamic panels with common correlated effects," Working Papers 2212, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    12. Shazia Kousar & Farhan Ahmed & María de las Nieves López García & Nimra Ashraf, 2020. "Renewable Energy Consumption, Water Crises, and Environmental Degradation with Moderating Role of Governance: Dynamic Panel Analysis under Cross-Sectional Dependence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    13. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick A. Puhani, 2019. "Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, January.
    14. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2022. "Analysing the nexus between income inequality and military expenditure in top ten defence expenditure economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 689-712, April.
    15. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve across Australian states and territories," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    16. Delphine Lahet & Stéphanie Prat, 2021. "Internationalisation of emerging market currencies and original sin: Empirical evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 1973-2003, July.
    17. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    18. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Jan Ditzen & Sean Holly, 2022. "Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Error Correction, Networks and Common Correlated Effects," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Panel Modeling, Micro Applications, and Econometric Methodology, volume 43, pages 37-60, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Fikru Kefyalew Alemayehu & Sigbjørn Landazuri Tveteraas, 2020. "Long-run labour flexibility in hospitality: A dynamic common correlated effects approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 704-718, June.
    20. Bhattacharjee, A. & Ditzen, J. & Holly, S., 2020. "Spatial and Spatio-temporal Engle-Granger representations, Networks and Common Correlated Effects," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2075, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Region; Growth; Unemployment; NAWRU; NAIRU; Wage Curve; Labor markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipt:termod:202002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Officer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipjrces.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.