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Accounting for Brazil's Growth Experience – 1940-2002

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  • Edmar Lisboa Bacha
  • Regis Bonelli

Abstract

This paper is devoted to a quantitative assessment of Brazil’s long-term growth experience. The analysis herein shows that savings alone do not explain the growth slump after 1980. Our explanation centers on the evolution of the output-capital ratio and on changes in the relative price of investment goods. A lower degree of capacity utilization also helps to elucidate Brazil’s mediocre growth performance since 1980. Decadal decompositions of capital stock and GDP growth highlight the factors accounting for Brazil’s growth in particular sub-periods. O trabalho contém uma avaliação quantitativa da experiência brasileira de crescimento no longo prazo, cobrindo o período 1940-2002. A análise mostra que o desempenho da poupança, por si só, não explica a redução das taxas de crescimento depois de 1980. Nossa explicação para esse fenômeno está baseada na evolução da relação produto-capital e nas mudanças dos preços relativos dos bens de investimento. A redução do grau de utilização da capacidade instalada também ajuda a explicar o medíocre desempenho brasileiro desde 1980. Um conjunto de decomposições do crescimento do estoque de capital e do PIB segundo períodos selecionados destaca quais foram os fatores responsáveis pelo crescimento brasileiro nesses períodos.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmar Lisboa Bacha & Regis Bonelli, 2015. "Accounting for Brazil's Growth Experience – 1940-2002," Discussion Papers 0128, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gomes, Victor & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu & Veloso, Fernando A., 2003. "Evolução da produtividade total dos fatores na economia brasileira: uma análise comparativa," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 483, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    2. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nader Nazmi & Julio E. Revilla, 2008. "Economic Efficiency and Growth: Evidence from Brazil, China, and India," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-86, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2005. "Estimating Potential Output : a Survey of the Alternative Methods and their Applications to Brazil," Discussion Papers 1092, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    3. Filho, Nelson H. Barbosa, 2004. "Estimating potential output: a survey of the alternative methods and their application to Brazil," Oficina de la CEPAL en Brasilia (Estudios e Investigaciones) 28401, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Nader Nazmi & Julio Revilla, 2011. "Brazil’s growth performance: a comparative perspective to the Asian giants," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-24, April.

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