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Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Mr. Manik L. Shrestha
  • Mr. Marco Marini

Abstract

This paper presents a statistical analysis of revisions in quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) of the Group of Twenty countries (G-20) since 2000. The main objective is to assess whether the reliability of early estimates of quarterly GDP has been weakened from the turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis. The results indicate that larger and more downward revisions were observed during the years 2008 and 2009 than in previous years.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Manik L. Shrestha & Mr. Marco Marini, 2013. "Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries: Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/060, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/060
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason Murphy, 2009. "Revisions to quarterly GDP growth and its components," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 3(4), pages 43-51, April.
    2. Gary Brown & Tullio Buccellato & Graeme Chamberlin & Sumit Dey-Chowdhury & Robin Youll, 2009. "Understanding the quality of early estimates of Gross Domestic Product," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 3(12), pages 43-50, December.
    3. Swanson, Norman R. & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Are Statistical Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 24-42, January.
    4. Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Differences in Early GDP Component Estimates Between Recession and Expansion," Working Papers 2011-05, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    5. Mariagnese Branchi & Christian Dieden & Wim Haine & Csaba Horwáth & Andrew Kanutin & Linda Kezbere, 2007. "Analysis of revisions to general economic statistics," Occasional Paper Series 74, European Central Bank.
    6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    7. Mrs. Carol S Carson & Mr. Sarmad Khawaja & Mr. Thomas K. Morrison, 2004. "Revisions Policy for Official Statistics: A Matter of Governance," IMF Working Papers 2004/087, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Branchi, Mariagnese & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Haine, Wim & Horváth, Csaba & Kanutin, Andrew & Kezbere, Linda, 2007. "Analysis of revisions to general economic statistics," Occasional Paper Series 74, European Central Bank.
    9. Richard McKenzie, 2006. "Undertaking Revisions and Real-Time Data Analysis using the OECD Main Economic Indicators Original Release Data and Revisions Database," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/2, OECD Publishing.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ducoudré, Bruno & Hubert, Paul & Tabarly, Guilhem, 2020. "The state-dependence of output revisions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Hobler, Stephan, 2022. "Multi-layered rational inattention and time-varying volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Matthias Bannert, 2015. "timeseriesdb: Manage and Archive Time Series Data in Establishment Statistics with R and PostgreSQL," KOF Working papers 15-384, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Mr. Robert M Heath, 2015. "What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics," IMF Working Papers 2015/088, International Monetary Fund.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2q9catktmn91sabau2l9qji1as is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alex Minne & Marc Francke & David Geltner & Robert White, 2020. "Using Revisions as a Measure of Price Index Quality in Repeat-Sales Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 514-553, May.
    7. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Marcus Scheiblecker, 2015. "Analysis of the Revisions to the Quarterly National Accounts Since the Introduction of Flash Estimates in 2005," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 20(2), pages 14-30, February.
    8. Enrique M. Quilis, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation of economic time series: The view from the trenches," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 447-470, November.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4bhjotvnvo9308hhu8rqo497o9 is not listed on IDEAS

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