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In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued?

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  • Nienke Oomes
  • Vahram Stepanyan
  • Gohar Minasyan
  • Ara Stepanyan

Abstract

This papers estimates the equilibrium exchange rate for Armenia using three different approaches: the purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, and the external sustainability (ES) approach. All three approaches suggest that the dram was overvalued by about 20–30 percent prior to the devaluation of the dram in March 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Nienke Oomes & Vahram Stepanyan & Gohar Minasyan & Ara Stepanyan, 2009. "In Search of a Dramatic Equilibrium: Was the Armenian Dram Overvalued?," IMF Working Papers 2009/049, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
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    6. Balázs Egert, 2002. "Investigating the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 273-309, July.
    7. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2001. "Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/056, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adustment under a Flexible Rate," Working Paper Series rwp04-037, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miss Anke Weber & Ms. Chunfang Yang, 2011. "Armenia: An Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2011/020, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Gor A. Khachatryan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2020. "Export Growth Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Armenia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 493-509, July.

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