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Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation: An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Lei Zhang
  • Mr. A. J Hamann
  • Mr. Andres F Arias Leiva

Abstract

Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation-stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases in which the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market but does not preannounce the use of an exchange rate anchor. The number of the de facto ERBS is twice as large as that of de jure ERBS. Output dynamics during disinflation do not differ significantly between these two groups. We conclude that empirical studies on the effects of exchange rate anchors must seek to disentangle the effects of their announcement from those related to their role in the remonetization process.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Lei Zhang & Mr. A. J Hamann & Mr. Andres F Arias Leiva, 2005. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2005/033, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2005/033
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444606.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    3. Sims,Christopher A. (ed.), 1994. "Advances in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521444590.
    4. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward F. Buffie & Manoj Atolia, 2011. "Exchange‐Rate‐based Stabilisation, Durables Consumption and the Stylised Facts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1130-1160, September.
    2. AsIcI, Ahmet AtIl, 2011. "Exchange rate regime choice and currency crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 419-436, September.
    3. Özlem Aytaç, 2017. "Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 815-830, July.
    4. Ozlem Aytac, 2008. "A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey," Caepr Working Papers 2008-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    5. Ozlem Aytac, 2008. "A Model of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization for Turkey," CAEPR Working Papers 2008-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.

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